670
FXUS61 KOKX 071528
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1128 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY. THE
HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN AN OFFSHORE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOOKING AT CAMS AND GIVEN CURRENT RADAR, HAVE INCREASED POPS
AND/OR HELD ON POPS FOR LONGER TODAY FOR MOST AREAS (EXCEPT FOR
ORANGE AND MUCH OF PUTNAM COUNTY WHERE THE RAIN HAS PRETTY MUCH
ENDED THERE). DO THINK THAT OVERALL COVERAGE DECREASES DURING
THEY DAY AS THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT PROVIDING THE LIFT SHIFTS
EAST. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
LOWER HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS FOR TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS, WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE THERE FOR MUCH, IF
NOT THE ENTIRE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS NEAR THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY, SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC LIFT. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LIFT BE PRESENT AS WELL, AND TAP INTO REMAINING MOISTURE
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING, FALLING MODERATELY AT
TIMES. THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, LEAVING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
EAST OF THE CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEARING AT LEAST
PARTIALLY BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR AREAS WEST OF LI AND CT. A
COOLER AIR MASS IS USHERED IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING SKIES SHIFT EAST FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. BLENDED IN MET/MAV MOS WITH NBM FOR SPOTS COULD SEE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, WHICH COULD BE MITIGATED IN SOME SPOTS BY
THE WINDS NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLING FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE WAVE MAY DRIFT CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. NBM LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SPOTS THAT SHOULD HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. A MORE RELIABLE MAV/MET MOS BLEND
WAS USED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO LOWER POPS
MIDWEEK. THE NBM HAS CONSISTENTLY APPEARED TOO HIGH AND TOO FAR
INLAND WITH RAIN POTENTIAL FROM THE PASSING OFFSHORE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ALONG THE COAST INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH DEPARTS, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE.
THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT INTO WED. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
ERN CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK, THIS SHOULD SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THU INTO THU NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW
IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS MOSTLY FROM NEAR 60S IN NYC TO THE MID 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THU BETWEEN PASSAGE OF
THE OFFSHORE WAVE AND APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S, A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS MOST TERMINALS AND ARE GOING TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR KSWF TERMINAL, THE SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY ENDED. END TIME OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE LATE AFTERNOON
FOR NYC TERMINALS AND KHPN AND EARLY EVENING FOR TERMINALS TO
THE EAST.
CATEGORIES VARY FROM VFR TO IFR. THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT IFR STILL POSSIBLE. ALL VFR
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
THEREAFTER.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH, WITH SOME TERMINALS MORE
NE FLOW AND SOME MORE NW FLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
NEAR 5 TO 10 KT. FOR THOSE TERMINALS CLOSER TO 5 KTS, WIND
DIRECTION AT TIMES COULD VERY WELL BE QUITE VARIABLE. WINDS BACK
TO MORE NW DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING TO MORE NORTH DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
IFR COULD LINGER INTO AFTERNOON BEFORE 20Z.
CATEGORIES COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. E GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE.
WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA FOR SOME TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE WINDS GETTING NEAR 25 KT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS IONIZER'S. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
STILL AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
EARLY THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE NO OTHER HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH
A S TO SE SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT AT 7 SECONDS ALONG WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS. THE SWELL HEIGHT DIMINISHES A LITTLE FOR MONDAY WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. A MODERATE RISK IS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
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