848
FXUS61 KOKX 080251
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1051 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN AN OFFSHORE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NEARBY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON THURSDAY AND PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI AND SE CT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT.
CLEARING WILL ALSO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAT TONIGHT, BUT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO PRECLUDE OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, THUS THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHERN
CT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. IN FACT, SOME LOWER 40S ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS. 50S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE,
EVEN INTO NYC.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE, DRY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BETTER NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS
AROUND 40 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTLYING AREAS, WITH ISOLATED
AREAS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S (MAV GUIDANCE FOR MGJ
IS 40). HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* MAINLY DRY AND COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE WEEK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
* LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND SOME
RETROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL ALLOW AN OFFSHORE
FRONTAL WAVE TO COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
THEN SENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR. SOLID CLOUD DECK WORKS EAST THIS EVENING, LEAVING BEHIND
SOME HIGH CIRRUS ON MONDAY.
LIGHT N/NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED TONIGHT. DIRECTION VEERS
MORE N OR NNE INTO MONDAY AM, PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SPEEDS AOB 10 KT. EXCEPTION IS AT COASTAL TERMINALS (KJFK, KBDR,
AND KGON) WHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE. GENERAL FLOW LOOKS TO GO NE OR E INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF SEA BREEZE AT JFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. E GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA, MAINLY EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5
FT TUESDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL JUST SHORT OF 25 KT
DURING THIS TIME. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE LOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT COULD PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR 25 KT.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A AN EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4FT 7-8S WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK INTO MONDAY. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE
RISK LESSENS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SOME. SEAS
WILL BUILD ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY
FLOW. A MODERATE, TO POSSIBLY HIGH RISK, IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE ORIENTATION OF THE INCOMING SWELL (5-6
FT 6-7S) WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE COAST, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
SURF TO 2 TO 4 FT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG E-W LONGSHORE
CURRENT.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF A EASTERLY WINDS AND A NEW MOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/DW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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