629
FXUS61 KOKX 081730
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND STAYS IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO
IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY. THE CENTER WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH, BUT STAYS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ALOFT,
A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN THE FLOW
GRADUALLY FLATTENS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN WITH THE HIGH TODAY, LEADING TO
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S.
THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS TONIGHT'S
LOWS. WHAT APPEARED TO BE A SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STILL THINKING THE NBM IS TOO WARM. GIVEN THE
INCREASING WINDS MAY AFFECT THE LI PINE BARRENS MORE, WENT
CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE LI PINE BARRENS. LOW TO MID 40S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
UPPER 30 READINGS. THE LI PINE BARRENS LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE STAYING STEADY OR
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES. EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL BE IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THE MOST PART,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PASSING OFFSHORE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
CLOSER NOW, WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WE ARE JUST
BARELY GETTING IN TO THE CAM WINDOW SO WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A
BETTER IDEA IN 12 TO 24 HOURS, BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NYC AND EAST. THIS IS WHAT
THE LATEST NBM HAS SO STUCK WITH THAT. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A
LIGHT STEADY RAIN WITH LOW RAINFALL TOTALS AND NO HAZARD
CONCERNS.
COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WHATS EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND WIND, MAINLY 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NBM
GUIDANCE FOLLOWED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WEAKENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR. N WINDS NEAR 10KT CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY AND WILL COVER IN A
TEMPO AT KJFK. WINDS BACKING TOWARD NE TONIGHT AT UNDER 10KT.
WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT JFK COULD BE MORE
SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST. WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO GROUP.
EASTERLY FLOW AT KLGA MIGHT NOT HAPPEN AT ALL OR BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE AT KEWR MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. E TO NE GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA, MAINLY EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO BUILDING 5 TO 6 FT SEAS. THROUGH THAT TIME,
WIND GUSTS LIKELY STAY UNDER 25 KT, BUT ISOLATED 25 KT GUSTS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AROUND 3 FT AT 7S WILL CAUSE A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK TODAY. FOR TUESDAY, THE COMBINATION OF AN EASTERLY 10-
12 KNOT FLOW AND EASTERLY WIND WAVE OF 4 TO 5 FT AT 7S WILL CAUSE A
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR NOW STUCK
WITH MODERATE BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN UPGRADE TO HIGH WITH
FUTURE FORECASTS.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW DAYS STARTING WITH
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU AND QUEENS AND ALONG WESTERN LI
SOUND AS A PERSISTENT E TO NE WIND FLOW PREVAILS WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FOLLOWING A RECENT FULL MOON ON SUNDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JT
HYDROLOGY...JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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