794
FXUS61 KOKX 082050
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
450 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LIKELY SLIDES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT WITH PRIMARILY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING E/NE WINDS FROM A PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL HAMPER RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN AREAS EAST AND SOUTH. OVERALL EXPECTING LOWS TO BE IN THE
MID/LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF/COASTAL PARTS OF THE AREA. THEN
LOWS MAY DIP INT THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON TUESDAY, BUT WEAKENS ITS
INFLUENCE TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT PUSHES MORE NORTH, GIVING WAY TO A
NEARBY COASTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON EASTERN LONG
ISLAND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEARBY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO TAPER WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST.
COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WHATS EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND WIND, MAINLY 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH FOR THE TAIL END OF THE
WEEKEND, LIKELY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME LITTLE IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE THIS FRONT, ALTHOUGH THERE
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD AT 500 MB WITH THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. STAYED LARGELY WITH THE NBM THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, EVEN FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS MAY BE WARRANTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE
HELD OFF INCLUDING IT FOR NOW. SO NO CHANGES IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THIS PACKAGE. OVERALL NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR. N WINDS NEAR 10KT CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY AND WILL COVER IN A
TEMPO AT KJFK. WINDS BACKING TOWARD NE TONIGHT AT UNDER 10KT.
WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT JFK COULD BE MORE
SOUTHERLY THAN FORECAST. WILL COVER WITH A TEMPO GROUP.
EASTERLY FLOW AT KLGA MIGHT NOT HAPPEN AT ALL OR BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE AT KEWR MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. E TO NE GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA, MAINLY EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO BUILDING 5 TO 6 FT SEAS. THROUGH THAT TIME,
WIND GUSTS LIKELY STAY UNDER 25 KT, BUT ISOLATED 25 KT GUSTS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SE SWELLS AT AROUND 8 SECONDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASING E WIND WAVE
WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH RISK SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE.
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS WILL BEGIN TO BE APPROACHED DURING
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SW CT AND SO WESTCHESTER COASTAL ZONES FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE, AND THE NASSAU SOUTH SHORE BAYS
FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING CYCLE. IT APPEARS THAT WATER LEVELS WILL
FALL SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR SO. NASSAU TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
COULD REACH MINOR BENCHMARKS FOR THE EVENING CYCLE. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS BEING REACHED FOR
THE LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS MAY BE REACHED FOR
PORTIONS OF STATEN ISLAND AND SO. QUEENS IN SUBSEQUENT CYCLES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JE
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