466
FXUS61 KOKX 090941
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
541 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL THROUGH TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
GRADUALLY PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
THEREAFTER. A COLD FRONT THEN LIKELY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY AS IT
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. AFTER A VERY COOL START TO THE MORNING
(NORMAL COOL SPOTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S), TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND
PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS WAVE AND HOW FAR INLAND ANY SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT.
IT IS WORTH NOTING SOME GUIDANCE HAS SHOWERS MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA
AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PASS OFFSHORE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED, THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THIS FEATURE. THE LATEST NBM WAS TOO LOW GIVEN
SEVERAL CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WHILE IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, IT
IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT SOME CAMS HAVE INCREASED RAINFALL
TOTALS GIVEN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LEADING TO MORE
OF A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN RAIN, THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING SOMEWHAT GUSTY NE/E WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
THEREAFTER, A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER ON
THURSDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NBM
GUIDANCE FOLLOWED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WEAKENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MOST LIKELY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE DAYTIME SUNDAY, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN 70S EACH
DAY.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE NEARBY LATE TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT WITH -SHRA
POSSIBLE.
LIGHT N TO NE WINDS UNDER 10 KT GOING INTO THE MORNING PUSH, THEN
BECOMING MORE ENE LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. UNCERTAIN ON FREQUENCY OF GUSTS, AND MAY BE
MORE OCCASIONAL.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL, ESPECIALLY AT KEWR AND KTEB. TIMING OF
MVFR CIGS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TONIGHT: MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR PROBABLE. -SHRA POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA AND A PASSING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
A 15 TO 20 KNOT NE FLOW WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KT AND HELP BUILD
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 5 TO 7 FEET. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO EVENTUALLY BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS TOO LOW. THEREAFTER, SUB SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 15
KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP BUILD AN EASTERLY WIND WAVE WAVE COMPONENT
TO 5 FT AT 7S. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK. GIVE WIND AND WAVE DIRECTION WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE
SHORELINE, SURF HEIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 3-4 FOR
SUFFOLK BEACHES AND 2-3 FOR ALL OTHER BEACHES. WITH THE WIND
BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL BE MODERATE. STILL, WITH A 5 FT WAVE COMPONENT AT 7-8S,
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A HIGH END MODERATE THREAT. AN UPGRADE TO
HIGH RISK CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE CURRENT TIDE FORECAST IS ROUGHLY AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 50TH
PERCENTILE PETSS AND STEVENS INSTITUTE NYHOPS. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SW CT AND SO WESTCHESTER
COASTAL ZONES FOR THIS EARLY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE, AND
THE NASSAU SOUTH SHORE BAYS FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
AREAS ALONG LOWER NY HARBOR COULD COME CLOSE TO TOUCHING MINOR
FLOODING BENCHMARKS, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE THIS IN THE STATEMENT. FOR WEDNESDAY'S DAYTIME CYCLE, A
MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING SITUATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SAME AREAS WHERE A STATEMENT IS CURRENTLY UP AND MAY NEED AN
ADVISORY. STATEMENTS FOR SOUTHERN QUEENS AND ALONG LOWER NY
HARBOR COULD BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS BEING REACHED FOR THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ355.
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