024
FXUS61 KOKX 091810
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
210 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN LIKELY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND
PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTH THIS
EVENING, LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE OFFSHORE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE GETTING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AREA.
THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA TO LEAD TO LIGHT RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW, AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. SOME 12Z
CAMS BRING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT COINCIDES WITH A PERIOD OF
HIGHER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (PRIMARILY ON LONG ISLAND AND IN SE CT). BEST CHANCES
FOR POPS APPEAR TO BE FROM NYC-LONG ISLAND TO SE CT. HOWEVER, SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
OTHER THAN RAIN, THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOMEWHAT GUSTY NE/E WINDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
GIVEN STEADY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THESE FACTORS. THE GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON HOW WARM IT SHOULD GET WITH A 10 DEGREE SPREAD AMONG THE
10TH TO 90TH NBM PERCENTILES. HAVE GONE WITH THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW, LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AN OFFSHORE LOW IMPACTING US ON WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH FARTHER
AWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MEANS ANY ONGOING RAINFALL WILL TAPER
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER ON THURSDAY AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NBM
GUIDANCE FOLLOWED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WEAKENS SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MOST LIKELY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRENGTHEN OF AN OMEGA BLOCK THAT SETS UP
ACROSS THE US AND SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
STRONGER THAN THE GFS IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS COULD BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TO
WHAT IS CURRENTLY A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA (SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MONDAY). HIGH TEMPERATURES IN 70S EACH DAY, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S, SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ON CLEARER
CALMER NIGHT IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT WITH -SHRA
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL BE EAST OF
NYC.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. KJFK MAY SEE A PERIOD OF SE WINDS FOR A LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15KT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT. GUSTS HOWEVER MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN
FREQUENT. WINDS NYC AND POINTS WEST SHOULD SEE THE WINDS BECOME A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL, ESPECIALLY AT KEWR AND KTEB. TIMING OF
MVFR CIGS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: MVFR BECOMING VFR LATE.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA AND A PASSING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A 15 TO 20 KNOT NE FLOW WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KT AND
HELP BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 5 TO 7 FEET. WHILE WINDS MAY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN 5 TO 7 FT WAVES WILL STILL
LINGER.
FOLLOWING DAYBREAK THURSDAY, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 15
KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP BUILD AN EASTERLY WIND WAVE WAVE COMPONENT
TO 5 FT AT 7S. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK. GIVE WIND AND WAVE DIRECTION WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE
SHORELINE, SURF HEIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 3-4 FOR
SUFFOLK BEACHES AND 2-3 FOR ALL OTHER BEACHES. WITH THE WIND
BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL BE MODERATE. STILL, WITH A 5 FT WAVE COMPONENT AT 7-8S,
THIS WILL BE MORE OF A HIGH END MODERATE THREAT. AN UPGRADE TO
HIGH RISK CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
THE CURRENT TIDE FORECAST IS ROUGHLY AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 50TH
PERCENTILE PETSS AND STEVENS INSTITUTE NYHOPS. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SW CT AND SO WESTCHESTER
COASTAL ZONES FOR THIS EARLY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE, AND
THE NASSAU SOUTH SHORE BAYS FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
AREAS ALONG LOWER NY HARBOR COULD COME CLOSE TO TOUCHING MINOR
FLOODING BENCHMARKS, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE THIS IN THE STATEMENT. FOR WEDNESDAY'S DAYTIME CYCLE, A
MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING SITUATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SAME AREAS WHERE A STATEMENT IS CURRENTLY UP AND MAY NEED AN
ADVISORY. STATEMENTS FOR SOUTHERN QUEENS AND ALONG LOWER NY
HARBOR COULD BE NEEDED. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS BEING REACHED FOR THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JP/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP/BR
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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