381
FXUS61 KOKX 121151
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
751 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A PREDAWN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATED SKY FORECAST GRIDS TO INCREASE CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO
BETTER MATCH WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ATTM WITH WINDS TURNING N THEN
NE MOSTLY 10 MPH OR LESS. ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. WINDS SHOULD TURN E
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SE LATE ALONG THE COAST AS THE HIGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS 75-80, WARMEST IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR OF NE NJ, PER THE WARMER OF THE NBM AND GFS MOS
GUIDANCE.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SE WINDS TONIGHT, EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO
BE A LITTLE MILDER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING, MOSTLY 55-60
INLAND AND IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. PER NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED, WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT
AND S WINDS 5-10 MPH, WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST
WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FLOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY, MOSTLY
75-80.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TSTM DURING THE AFTERNOON/LATE DAY HOURS ON SAT LATE
WELL INLAND, FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST PER NBM.
SOME CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND A SHARPER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR TSTM ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, MORE SO ACROSS SE CT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FCST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NBM FOLLOWED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
OBSERVED BETWEEN THE NEW NBM GRIDS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
OVERALL, STILL A DOMINANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY FORECAST
WITH A STRONG RIDGING PRESENCE ALOFT. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
POTENTIALLY APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK BUT APPEARS TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN MAGNITUDE. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN LATEST
LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE FOR 500MB HEIGHT BUT THE RIDGING IS SHOWN TO
GET A LITTLE SUPPRESSED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE TREND IS RELATIVELY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON AVERAGE
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS INTO EARLY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
OUTLYING AREAS COULD HAVE SOME FOG WITH MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE KSWF AND KGON IN
TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS 09-12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS NEAR 5-7 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MORNING AND THEN MORE EAST FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER, WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS NEAR 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE BACK TO NEAR 5 KTS TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SEA BREEZE ARRIVAL COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: OUTSIDE OF PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR LOCALES, MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOME TERMINALS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
MONDAY - TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NE THIS MORNING, BUT WINDS/SEAS WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOSTLY IN CONTROL, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK
THEREAFTER WITH CONTINUED SUB-ADVY COND.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ATTM.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
REGARDING RIP CURRENTS, THE OCEAN BEACHES HAVE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL OF 7-8 SECONDS PERIOD AND AROUND 2 TO 3 FT
WAVE HEIGHT.
SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD
CT. ELSEWHERE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD, WITH FLOODING NOT
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...BG/JM
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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