681
FXUS61 KOKX 121732
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
132 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN LARGELY REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND - GENERALLY FEWER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS,
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN
CT. ASSUMING FEWER CLOUDS, WENT BELOW NBM FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE PINE BARRENS REGION. NBM WAS OTHERWISE USED FOR LOWS
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THE DAY STARTS OFF MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST, BUT
SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED, PARTICULARLY NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WHERE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN 850-700MB MOISTURE.
WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFT MOVES IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR A MENTION OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH CAMS IMPLY SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY 75-80 AND A LITTLE COOLER FOR SOME THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. SOME CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD TOUCH OFF AN AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TSTM ACROSS PARTS SE CT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, WITH MOSTLY
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FCST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS
*DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
*TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE MODELING STILL INDICATES ENERGY GETTING STUCK
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, LIKELY FORMING A BROAD
CUTOFF LOW BY MID WEEK. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH ITS LOCATION BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS IT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH
TOWARDS THE AREA AS THE RIDGING WEAKENS. THERE ARE ALSO SOLUTIONS
TAKING IT FURTHER INLAND, BUT REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LATEST NBM, WHICH KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN INTRODUCTION OF
LOW POPS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IF
THE CUTOFF LOW DOES INDEED LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
OUTLYING AREAS COULD HAVE SOME FOG WITH MVFR TO IFR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE KSWF AND KGON IN TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THIS 09-12Z SATURDAY.
WINDS NE/E EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT WITH SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED AT ALL COASTAL TAF SITES. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BRINGS WINDS
SE/SSE 5-10 KTS. THIS TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK 1-3 HOURS IN ALL
TAFS, BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT ALL SITES. WINDS DECREASE
BACK TO NEAR 5 KTS TONIGHT, WITH SOME SITES BELOW 5 KTS AND GOING
VARIABLE. TOMORROW, WINDS S/SSE 5-10 KTS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SEA BREEZE ARRIVAL COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER REGION AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING AT OCEAN
BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS LOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
RELATIVELY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS EACH DAY WITH 2 FT WAVES AROUND
7 SECONDS.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S
HIGH TIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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