893
FXUS61 KOKX 131822
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
222 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW TO
THE SOUTH MAY GRAZE THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AND LOW LEVELS REMAINING RATHER DRY AS PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PERHAPS AREAS SEE ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN
CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE OUTLYING AREAS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 50S, AND WITH DEW POINTS ALSO IN THE MID 50S PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES APPROACH THE REGION FOR SUNDAY, AND LOOKS
TO DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. AGAIN, LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY,
AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT, OR MAYBE BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* A WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH MAY GRAZE THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
* DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST, MOVING NORTHWARD UNDER THE
RIDGE, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS LOCATION AND CONTINUED WITH THE NBM
GUIDANCE. AFTER THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
RETURNS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHWRS OR EVEN AN ISOLD
TSTM POSSIBLE N OF THE NYC ARPTS THIS AFTN, BUT PROBABILITY AND
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR MOST SPOTS. DID ADD
A PROB30 FOR SWF. ANY ACTIVITY DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS SEWD
INTO THIS EVE. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR SHWRS AFT 18Z SUN.
S THE SE FLOW INTO THIS EVE, STRONGEST AT THE COASTS. FLOW
BECOMES LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN BECOME SLY AT THE
COASTS AFT 15Z SUN.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF SHWRS DEVELOP CLOSER THAN EXPECTED THRU
00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
TSTM AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...//
NEAR TERM...//
SHORT TERM...//
LONG TERM...//
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...//
HYDROLOGY...//
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//
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