494
FXUS61 KOKX 141148
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND PASSES
THROUGH BY EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS, EVENTUALLY
SETTLING EAST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT DRIFTING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THERE ARE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS TO LAST UNTIL 9 AM. WITH RAPID
CHANGE IN VISIBILITIES, HAVE SPS OUT TO ADDRESS THIS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING,
BEFORE EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH BY EARLY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE.
WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND THEN BECOME MORE VARIABLE
TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY SWITCHING TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BY
EARLY MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST WITH COLDEST AIR
ALOFT AND LOWEST GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS TOWARDS MORE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION.
CAM'S DEPICT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN AND MADE THE CHANCE
POP FARTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS CLOSER TO
THE APEX OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION. FARTHER WEST, POP LIMITED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONVEY A PROMINENT MID LEVEL CAP SO
THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.
NBM EXHIBITED A RECENT WARM BIAS FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITH MOS
CONSENSUS PERFORMING BETTER REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST USED AN EQUAL BLEND
OF NBM AND MAV MOS AS WELL AS MET MOS. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE RANGE MAINLY FROM MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
FOR TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXITS FARTHER SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION. IN ITS PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE AN
AREA OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. INSTABILITY WILL LOWER AS
WELL WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BUT WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.
FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE NBM AND MOS CONSENSUS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. CLOUDS
DECREASE AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EVENTUALLY
SETTLING UPON A MORE NORTHEAST DIRECTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY. THE FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.
IN ADDITION, A COMBINATION OF RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE FOG
FORMATION COULD OCCUR FOR SOME LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST AS PATCHY FOG.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVELS EXHIBIT THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN A CUTOFF LOW
WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND A SUBTLE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE CUTOFF LOW STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS
MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW EACH DAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WILL MAKE
FOR A COOLING TREND TO HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST WITH MORE MARITIME INFLUENCE. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 MONDAY AND THEN LOWER TO UPPER
70S ON TUESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN CHANCE FOR
RAIN RETURNS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH.
LOWS FORECAST AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ARE SIMILAR FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND FOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SOME LOCATIONS COULD HAVE FOG DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WED INTO THU AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVE UP
THE COAST.
* DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT.
A LOW TO THE SOUTH TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL DRIFT NNE-WARD WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING, WITH ACCOMPANYING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WED INTO THU
ESPECIALLY FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND. CAN'T RULE OUT A TSTM VIA
SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAINLY CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR
WED NIGHT.
FRI STILL LOOKS WARM AS CONDS DRY OUT AND HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT
HOWEVER BRIEFLY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 80-85. THEN AN UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS ERN CANADA LOOKS TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT, WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
FOR SAT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAINLY LIGHT/VRB WINDS TO START SHOULD BECOME NE AT THE NYC
METROS AND THEN SE-S THIS AFTERNOON, FIRST AT KJFK AND THEN
AFTER 20Z-21Z AT THE OTHER METROS. WINDS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS FARTHER EAST SHOULD BECOME S THIS MORNING. HIGHEST
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KT AT TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. DIMINISHING S FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WITH MVFR COND
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE NYC
METRO AND COASTAL TERMINALS LATE WED NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH E FETCH BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF 5-FT SEAS ON THE OUTER
OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RIP CURRENT
RISK MONDAY IS MODERATE AS WAVES BUILD FROM AN INCREASING
EASTERLY FETCH. EXPECTING SURF HEIGHTS TO BE NEAR 1-2 FT TODAY
AND TO 2-3 FT ON MON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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