749
FXUS61 KOKX 151444
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, PASSING OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BUILDS SOUTH OVER
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH NOSED INTO THE
REGION CLOUDS FROM THE COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH, ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST, HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION. WITH
MORE INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN MORE THAN
FORECAST AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLIES AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. A
BROAD CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY,
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING.
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT DID NOT BRING MUCH OF AN AIR MASS
CHANGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS,
WARMEST ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT NOT ONLY FROM
HIGH CLOUDS BUT SOME LOWER STRATUS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND FROM A MARITIME LIGHT NE FLOW. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND
TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ALLOWING THE BROAD CUTOFF
LOW TO START LIFTING NORTH. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
ALSO BEGIN MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS, BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION THROUGH MID WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THERE
IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO APPROACH THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY AGAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. INTERIOR LOCATIONS COULD VERY
WELL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING LINGERS
NEARBY. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK AND THERE ARE INCREASING TRENDS
FOR THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO WEAKEN, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY END UP LEADING TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS, BUT
FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST NBM KEEPING A 30-50 PERCENT POP
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 70S INLAND. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S WITH CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE NBM USED WITH
THIS UPDATE.
KEY POINTS:
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY TREND COOLER (UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S) FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY THURSDAY WEAKENS AS IT
PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE AREA DRY, BUT WILL BRING A COOLER AIR MASS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA, REMAINING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT.
NE WINDS AT AROUND 10KT BCMG ESE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BACKING
TO NE 5-10KT TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: OUTSIDE OF ANY LOW STRATUS EARLY IN THE MORNING, MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FRIDAY: VFR
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
STARTS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WEST OF MORICHES INLET
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON AN SCA AT THIS
TIME AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY SEAS WILL
BUILD THIS FAR NORTH. SEAS COULD REMAIN NEAR 5 FT ON THE
OFFSHORE OCEAN WATERS WEST OF MORICHES INLET WEDNESDAY, BUT
SHOULD SUBSIDE THEREAFTER WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FETCH, BUILDING WAVES TO 4 FT AND SE SWELL.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE RISK BECOMES HIGH IF WAVES BUILD TO 5 FT,
ESPECIALLY FOR NYC, NASSAU AND SW SUFFOLK BEACHES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/JC
MARINE...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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