059
FXUS61 KOKX 161822
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
222 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS LOW SPINS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DEPARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH
BUILDS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT MAINTAINS
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LARGE SCALE, HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN US
BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHEAST AS A BROAD CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EAST COAST REINTEGRATES INTO THE FLOW. THE CUT-OFF
LOW IS FORCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SPIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL MEANDER SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS
TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA
DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD,
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE IN OFF OF THE OCEAN UNDER A PRIMARILY E
FLOW. AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW, SOME VEERING
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME SUBTLE WARMING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 100-500 J/KG. WHILE NOT MUCH, THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY
PERSISTING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF
WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC TYPE RAINFALL VS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MORE SCATTERED, THE
DAY MAY NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT AND RAIN MAY BE MORE PERIODIC
WITH SOME DRY PERIODS. THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. SHOWER
ACTIVITY BECOMES LESS LIKELY INLAND BUT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
REGARDLESS, OVERCAST SKIES, A BRISK E/NE FLOW OF 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30MPH ALONG THE COAST, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUD COVER MAY QUICKLY CLEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY
QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES. IF THIS OCCURS, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE POSSIBLE. FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES N AND
THEN EVENTUALLY NW.
OVERALL, RAINFALL EXPECTED WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH COASTAL AREAS, LIKE
LONG ISLAND, RECEIVING MORE THAN INLAND AREAS. RAINFALL UPWARDS
OF A HALF INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE IN ANY MORE PERSISTENT OR
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY POINTS:
*A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY WILL BRING IN COOLER, DRIER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
*TEMPERATURES WILL START TRENDING WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NBM STRICTLY FOLLOWED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING
IN A COOLER, DIRER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY VEERING TO THE SE/S ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S, BUT CLOSER TO 60 FOR THE NYC METRO.
A BACKING UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A
FRONTAL JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH SLIDES
EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. MVFR AND -SHRA BECOMING LIKELY DURING
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING PUSH AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL BUT
KSWF/KBDR/KGON AND POSSIBLY KHPN AS WELL.
E WINDS AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT, THOUGH MORE OCCASIONAL AT
SOME TERMINALS. GUSTS SUBSIDE AND WINDS DIMINISH TO CLOSER TO 10KT
THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT. ENE
WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT FOR WEDNESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE ONLY OCCASIONAL BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY PM: MVFR WITH -SHRA.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR AND -SHRA IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING PUSH, OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: VFR. NW GUSTS AROUND 20KT ON FRIDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW WITHE THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 25 KT
AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. THE LOW WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A NE/E FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MAY PRODUCE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH SEAS
OF BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATER
SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY SWELL OF 5-7FT 7-8S AND AN EASTERLY
WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT. THE LATTER OF WHICH IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR A
STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT. A SUBSIDING SWELL AND AN OFFSHORE WIND
LESS THAN 10 KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE RISK TO LOWER TO MODERATE ON
THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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