096
FXUS61 KOKX 170602
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
202 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY, BUT MAINTAINING RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE DELMARVA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK NORTH AND END UP LYING JUST OFF THE JERSEY COAST
BY THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SUPPORTING THE LOW WILL
FLATTEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE TONIGHT ALLOWING THE SURFACE
LOW TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND BECOME MUCH BROADER JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WITH COVERAGE AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SHOWERS. DRY AIR AND LINGERING SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE HAS CREATED A CORRIDOR
THAT IS NOT SUPPORTING THE MAINTENANCE/DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS.
THE NE FLOW FROM THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SUPPLY SUBCLOUD DRY AIR.
THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOISTEN THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGING WEAKENS.
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT MAY TAKE SOME TIME ACROSS THE EAST END
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH. AS THE LOW DRIFTS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON, BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. NBM POPS LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THIS
MORNING. AS THE LOW STARTS MOVING EAST AWAY FROM THE NJ COAST,
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST END
OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
SPECIFICALLY THE INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO SEE SHOWERS
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
THE DAYTIME HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
WITH SHOWERS LARGELY ENDING UP SCATTERED AND MORE PERIODIC. THE
MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR SHOWERS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
INSTABILITY IS LACKING THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE. MUCH OF THIS CAPE APPEARS
TO BE ABOVE THE SATURATED LAYER LOWEST 12KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY CLOSE TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE GONE LOWER THAN THE
NBM THUNDER PROBS BASED ON SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION AS THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AVERAGING
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST AND POTENTIALLY JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS INLAND.
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S DUE TO
CLOUD COVER, EASTERLY FLOW, AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED NEAR THE COAST WITH POTENTIAL OF
GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AT THE START OF THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. THESE
SHOULD BE SHORT- LIVED AS THE WEAK LOW AND DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVER MAY
QUICKLY CLEAR INTO THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
BASED ON THE QUICK CLEARING OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWEST TO RISE OUT EAST IF CLOUDS LINGER
THERE A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL CARVE OUT TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND
TO END THE WEEK AND SEND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING
IN A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. BEFORE THE FRONT
PASSES, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FEW SPOTS IN NE NJ
COULD REACH THE MID 80S. THE COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY POINTS:
*HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
*TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, BUT
START TRENDING WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
*NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
NBM STRICTLY FOLLOWED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY VEERING TO THE SE/S ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S, BUT CLOSER TO 60 FOR THE NYC METRO.
A BACKING UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF A
FRONTAL JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT.
VFR TO START THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BECOMING MVFR AS -SHRA
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY, WHILE TERMINALS FURTHER NORTH
WILL SEE SHOWERS BE A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE, ALONG WITH SOME
HIGHER CIGS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. ALSO, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF IFR CIGS TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
ENE OR NE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS START OFF AROUND
10 KT OR LESS. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTS UP TO
20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS FALL BACK BELOW 10KT
TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES THIS MORNING MAY BE OFF
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL ON WEDNESDAY.
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR IFR. POSSIBLE -SHRA.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR AND -SHRA IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING PUSH, OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW GUSTS AROUND 20KT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE FOR SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 5-7 FT.
THE LOW WILL START MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WEAKEN.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 FT THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MAY PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH SEAS OF
BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATER SATURDAY
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO AN EASTERLY SWELL OF 5-7FT AT 7-8S AND AN EASTERLY
WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT. THE LATTER OF WHICH IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR A
STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT. A SUBSIDING SWELL AND AN OFFSHORE WIND
LESS THAN 10 KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE RISK TO LOWER TO MODERATE ON
THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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