749
FXUS61 KOKX 171828
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
228 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY, BUT MAINTAINING RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS IS REINTEGRATES INTO THE FLOW, THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS
THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THOUGH IT'S WORTH
MENTIONING THAT WHILE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR COASTAL
AREAS, SHOWERS MAY BE MORE PERIODIC OR OCCASIONAL WITH BREAKS OF DRY
CONDITIONS.
THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AS WELL WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. WHILE NOT
NECESSARILY PRODUCING THUNDER OR LIGHTNING, THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN THESE SHOWERS. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW SHIFTS EAST.
GENERALLY, LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, THOUGH ANY LOCATION THAT IS
ABLE TO SEE A BRIEFLY HEAVIER SHOWER MAY END UP GETTING UPWARDS
OF HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE DIMINISHING BY
THURSDAY MORNING. OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
AND EVENTUALLY PASS BY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE NW
BUT NOT DO MUCH ELSE IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY POINTS:
*A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
*TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, BUT START
TRENDING WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
*NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
NBM CLOSELY FOLLOWED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING IN A COOLER, DRIER
AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY VEERING TO THE SE/S ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, BUT CLOSER TO 60 IN AND AROUND THE NYC
METRO.
OPERATIONAL GLOBALS ALL CONTINUE TO HAVE VARIED SOLUTIONS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW THEY HANDLE PAC JET ENERGY MOVING IN THE PAC
NW AND WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS AND 06Z ECMWF
CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, WHILE THE CANADIAN IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SHEARED OUT
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GEFS MEAN
SUPPORTS MORE PROGRESSION THAN THE OPERATIONAL. FOR THE TIME BEING,
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LOOKS TO
MAINTAIN ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, A BACKING UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMUP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THROUGH TONIGHT, RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS NYC TERMINALS AND KISP WITH LESS FREQUENCY AND
COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
CATEGORIES, MAINLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON TRENDING TOWARDS IFR TONIGHT.
MAINLY IFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY VFR
THEREAFTER.
WINDS, E-ENE NEAR 10 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY E-NE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 5-
10 KT. WIND DIRECTION FOR SOME TERMINALS BECOMES VARIABLE DIRECTION
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OTHERWISE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO INCLUDE TSRA IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THEIR
OCCURRENCE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF CATEGORICAL CHANGES BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR.
SUB-IFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WIND GUSTS COULD BE MORE INTERMITTENT AND THEY COULD OCCUR A FEW
HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
ELEVATED SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25KT REMAINING
POSSIBLE WILL ALLOW FOR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. AS THE WIND WEAKENS, SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY
PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH SEAS OF BUILDING
TO AROUND 4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATER SATURDAY AND REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO AN EASTERLY SWELL OF 5-7FT AT 7-8S AND AN EASTERLY
WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT. THE LATTER OF WHICH IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR A
STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT. A SUBSIDING SWELL AND AN OFFSHORE WIND
LESS THAN 10 KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE RISK TO LOWER TO MODERATE ON
THURSDAY, POSSIBLY LOW IN SPOTS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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