021
FXUS61 KOKX 180234
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1034 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY, BUT MAINTAINING RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPDATED FORECAST TO MAINLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
HIGH RES MODELS. MUCH OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OCEAN
AND INTO NE NJ SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO A DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE
NW OF THE UPPER LOW. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND LIFT TO THE NE ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
STILL A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER, MAINLY FOR LI AND
SOUTHERN CT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH, BUT LOCALED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE DIMINISHING BY
THURSDAY MORNING. OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
AND EVENTUALLY PASS BY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE NW
BUT NOT DO MUCH ELSE IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY POINTS:
*A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
*TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, BUT START
TRENDING WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
*NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
NBM CLOSELY FOLLOWED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING IN A COOLER, DRIER
AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY VEERING TO THE SE/S ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, BUT CLOSER TO 60 IN AND AROUND THE NYC
METRO.
OPERATIONAL GLOBALS ALL CONTINUE TO HAVE VARIED SOLUTIONS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW THEY HANDLE PAC JET ENERGY MOVING IN THE PAC
NW AND WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS AND 06Z ECMWF
CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, WHILE THE CANADIAN IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SHEARED OUT
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GEFS MEAN
SUPPORTS MORE PROGRESSION THAN THE OPERATIONAL. FOR THE TIME BEING,
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LOOKS TO
MAINTAIN ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, A BACKING UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMUP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY INTO THURSDAY.
MAINLY MVFR TO START, WITH CIGS DECLINING TOWARD IFR OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
NYC TERMINALS AND KISP THROUGH AROUND 6Z, WITH LESS COVERAGE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. MIST POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS AND VSBYS
COULD LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES INTO THE MORNING PUSH. IMPROVEMENT
LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VFR THEREAFTER.
WINDS GENERALLY E-NE LATE THIS EVENING, BACKING N OR NW AFTER
6Z. SPEEDS LARGELY AT OR UNDER 10 KT. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO FLIP COASTAL TERMINALS TO THE SW INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND SE AT KEWR AND KTEB.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY TONIGHT TO ADJUST TIMING OF CATEGORICAL
CHANGES BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR.
SUB-IFR POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE WIND DIRECTION CHANGE ON THURSDAY COULD BE
OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
ELEVATED SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25KT REMAINING
POSSIBLE WILL ALLOW FOR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. AS THE WIND WEAKENS, SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY
PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH SEAS OF BUILDING
TO AROUND 4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATER SATURDAY AND REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH A SUBSIDING ESE SWELL AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS, THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL DECREASE TO LOW FOR THE NYC AND NASSAU
BEACHES FOR THURSDAY, AND MODERATE FOR SUFFOLK. A LOW RISK IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL BEACHES FRIDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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