997
FXUS61 KOKX 180538
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY, BUT MAINTAINING RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE DIMINISHING BY
THURSDAY MORNING. OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY
AND EVENTUALLY PASS BY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND TO THE NW
BUT NOT DO MUCH ELSE IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY POINTS:
*A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
*TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, BUT START
TRENDING WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
*NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
NBM CLOSELY FOLLOWED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORECAST TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING IN A COOLER, DRIER
AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 70 FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY VEERING TO THE SE/S ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, BUT CLOSER TO 60 IN AND AROUND THE NYC
METRO.
OPERATIONAL GLOBALS ALL CONTINUE TO HAVE VARIED SOLUTIONS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW THEY HANDLE PAC JET ENERGY MOVING IN THE PAC
NW AND WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS AND 06Z ECMWF
CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, WHILE THE CANADIAN IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SHEARED OUT
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GEFS MEAN
SUPPORTS MORE PROGRESSION THAN THE OPERATIONAL. FOR THE TIME BEING,
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LOOKS TO
MAINTAIN ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, A BACKING UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMUP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK IMPACTFUL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. CEILINGS MAY GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY
DAYBREAK BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH 16Z. VFR THEN PREVAILS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NE-N WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NW-W AFTER 12-14Z
WITH AFTERNOON SW SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS
MAY REMAIN W AT KEWR AND KTEB THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE A
LIGHT SE-S SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AFTER
00Z AND AS SPEEDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR FLUCTUATING FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
BRIEF LIFR POSSIBLE AT KLGA THROUGH 08Z.
IFR MAY PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z AT KJFK AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT KEWR
AND KTEB.
TIMING OF SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND SEAS A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
ELEVATED SEAS ON THE OCEAN WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25KT REMAINING
POSSIBLE WILL ALLOW FOR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. AS THE WIND WEAKENS, SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY
PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH SEAS OF BUILDING
TO AROUND 4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE LATER SATURDAY AND REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH A SUBSIDING ESE SWELL AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS, THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL DECREASE TO LOW FOR THE NYC AND NASSAU
BEACHES FOR THURSDAY, AND MODERATE FOR SUFFOLK. A LOW RISK IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL BEACHES FRIDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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