439
FXUS61 KOKX 181849
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
249 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY, NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. THIS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THEREAFTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN RETURN NORTH AS A SLOW MOVING WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SHOW THAT MID LEVELS
EXHIBIT NOT MUCH HEIGHT CHANGE, RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO
THE NORTH. SURFACE, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SW TO NW DIRECTION TONIGHT, BECOMING ALL NW
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS
WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THE FRONT WITH WINDS STAYING UP SLIGHTLY TO
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
NBM APPEARED TO BE TOO WARM AND LEANED MORE TOWARDS RELATIVELY
COOLER MOS FOR THE FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES FOR LOCATIONS THAT
ARE MORE RURAL AND COOL OFF MORE RAPIDLY. USED THE MAV/MET MOS
BLEND INSTEAD. LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL SECTIONS COULD
DEVELOP SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. LEFT AS SOME PATCHY
FOG IN FORECAST GRIDS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT TO START THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION WITH ALL NW FLOW FOR EARLY FRIDAY. NW FLOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN ONTARIO
FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.
WITH NW PRIMARY MODE OF WIND DIRECTION DURING THE DAY, DOWNSLOPE
WILL BE EFFECTIVE AT ALLOWING COASTAL LOCATIONS TO BE JUST AS WARM
IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. NBM WAS ADJUSTED A
DEGREE WARMER ALONG CT AND NYC/LI SOUTHERN COASTLINES. UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, MODELS CONVEY A STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BUT WITH AN INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN NE FLOW, WHICH WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. USED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS ALONG WITH NBM WITH
GREATER WEIGHT TOWARDS MAV AND MET, WITH EACH 40 PERCENT WEIGHT.
FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM MID 40S TO NEAR 60.
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEP CLOUD COVERAGE MINIMAL.
FOR SATURDAY, THE NE FLOW CONTINUES WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR THE DAY
CLOSER TO THE COAST, NEAR 20 MPH. GUSTS SUBSIDE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. A MUCH COOLER
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
70S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE PARTIALLY MITIGATED WITH THE
EASTERLY WINDS, ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR SLIGHTLY COOLER
VALUES THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT, MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED THE NBM.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LOWER STRATUS AND/OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
HAVE AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION WITH PATCHY
FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN ELONGATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES, WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT, WHILE THE TROUGHING
THAT HAS PERSISTED OFF THE SE COAST FOR SOME TIME FINALLY LIFTS OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. WE SHOULD SEE FAIR WX DURING THIS TIME, WITH A
GENERAL E FLOW ON SUNDAY, BECOMING SE-S ON MON. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S,
THEN MODERATING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
THROUGHOUT.
ON TUE, A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT TOWARD THE AREA,
THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY
MOISTURE STARVED, SO HAVE FORECAST ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LATE
DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON A SW FLOW,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE NYC METRO AREA AND MOST OF THE
INTERIOR.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WEEK BUT EITHER WAY
SUGGESTS A BLOCKIER PATTERN UNFOLDING, WITH THE ECMWF FORECASTING A
REX BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL
CANADA AND A CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER THE SOUTHER PLAINS, WHILE THE GFS
HAS MORE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
CANADA OVER TO NEW ENGLAND. EITHER WAY THIS SETUP SUGGESTS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/ERN CANADA, WITH SOME ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE
GENERAL BLOCKINESS TO SEND A SFC WARM FRONT SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA
WED INTO THU. HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POP FOR WED NIGHT FOR NYC
NORTH/WEST AND LONG ISLAND, AND SLIGHT CHANCE OTHERWISE FOR WED
NIGHT INTO THU. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS
ON FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY.
NW-W WITH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SW SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AFTER 00Z AND AS
SPEEDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KT, THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CONDITIONS GET RELATIVELY CLOSE TO SCA
THRESHOLDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT.
PERSISTENT E FLOW ON SHOULD BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO 3-4 FT ON SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER THE WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN, AND WILL DEPEND ON
THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TS GABRIELLE WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC. ATTM NWPS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SETS OF 5-FT SE SWELLS
FROM MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH 3 FT 8 SECOND ONSHORE SWELL THIS AFTERNOON AND COASTAL
WINDS BECOMING MORE SW NEAR 5-10 KT, MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
FOR LOCAL AREA OCEAN BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH A SUBSIDING ESE SWELL, THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
LOW FOR ALL LOCAL AREA OCEAN BEACHES FRIDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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