470
FXUS61 KOKX 031435
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN
MOVE ACROSS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE WEST BEGINNING LATER
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FORECAST ON TRACK THUS FAR TODAY WITH HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER COMPARING OBSERVED
TO FORECAST VALUES. SKY CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS EAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY, BUT A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
FOR TONIGHT, IT WILL ALSO BE MILDER WITH A SW FLOW AND CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION. STILL WEIGHED IN SOME MOS TO THE NBM ACROSS THE
PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI WHICH RADIATES EXCEPTIONALLY WELL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND AND ACROSS THE PINE
BARRENS REGION OF LI, TO MAINLY IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PAC JET
ENERGY KICKS AN UPPER TROUGH OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL
BE ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE 50S ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS, TO AROUND 60 FOR THE NYC METRO. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE IN A LIGHT SW/S FLOW. DEWPOINTS WILL
GET BACK UP INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 60 FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NBM WAS FOLLOWED WITH MINIMAL COSMETIC CHANGES.
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
* THE HIGH SLIDES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FROM TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY THU WITH
THE FRONTAL APPROACH/PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY DAYTIME WED INTO WED
EVENING.
* HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO END THE WEEK.
* TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. THIS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT
THIS TIME NO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SET. TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 60S.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
VFR. W TO SW WINDS THIS MORNING, INCREASE TO NEAR OR AROUND 10
KT BY LATE MORNING, WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS BECOME MORE WSW INTO THIS EVENING. MOST
TERMINALS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BECOMING MORE NW
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY-TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
SW/WSW WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS BUILDING SOME, BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 4 FT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS EAST OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
QPF FROM TUE NIGHT INTO THU MORNING COULD BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO ACCOMPANYING HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED AT THE THIS TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...BC/JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
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