583
FXUS61 KOKX 031941
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
BUT ITS CENTER WILL BE MOVING FARTHER SOUTH AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT ITS CENTER
WILL BE MOVING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. RIDGING ALOFT APPROACHING THE REGION
AND WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE STRONG, ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT TO
CALM. RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORECAST ALONG INTERIOR RIVER VALLEYS
AND OUTLYING INTERIOR LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WHERE FOG OCCURRED
THE PREVIOUS MORNING. NO FOG EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH WINDS
STAYING UP TOO MUCH WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOWING FOR
MORE VERTICAL MIXING.
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NBM FOR FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COAST AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET FOR FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES INLAND. EXPECT A VAST RANGE OF LOWS FROM MID 40S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR TO NEAR 60 WITHIN PARTS OF NYC.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
FOR THIS WEEKEND, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL,
KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS. WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING FARTHER SOUTH, A MORE SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE A
FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN NEARLY THE SAME
VALUES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN THE FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NOTING THE FORECAST GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS HIGHER THAN THE
MEAN WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES, USED THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR FOR BOTH DAYS DESPITE A MORE
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE
RANGE OF LOW TO MID 80S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE TWIN
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS SOME PORTIONS OF OTHER
COASTLINES HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST MORE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS
BECOMING VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BETTER CAPTURE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WITH FORECAST INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS, MORE FOG IS
FORECAST AS WELL INCLUDING INLAND AND SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST. DID NOT PUT INTO FORECAST YET, BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITH SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AND EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NBM WAS LARGELY FOLLOWED WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES.
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, EVENTUALLY
MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES
A BIT WITH TIMING BUT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT NOT COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.
* ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THEREAFTER AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S, ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
VFR.
GENERALLY A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW, 10 KT OR LESS, BECOMES SW TO W
EARLY THIS EVENING, AND THEN LIKELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST
TERMINALS BY LATE EVENING. A LIGHT W FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER 13Z
SATURDAY, BECOMING SW TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY-TUESDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WEDNESDAY W
WIND BECOMING N GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS COULD GET CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS FOR OCEAN SEAS EAST
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE TONIGHT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
ZONE ACCORDING TO LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE FROM NWPS. HOWEVER, WITH
WINDS STAYING NEAR 10-15 KT AND BEING OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS THE
OCEAN, OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR THE
MARINE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN NWPS AND WAVEWATCH OVER THE FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
LOCAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT AND THIS UNCERTAINTY IS ANOTHER
REASON FOR NOT ISSUING SCA. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE OCEAN BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCA ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL MARINE
ZONES WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RELATIVELY WEAK.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THAT
APPROACH 25 KT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK MAY BE 0.5 TO
1", HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW
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