005
FXUS61 KOKX 041841
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
241 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BUT WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE CENTERED OUT IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FROM
THE WEST AND NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ITS CENTER WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM AND THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. FORECAST LOWS WERE FROM THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE, AN
EVEN BLEND OF EACH. THE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SOME OUTLYING AND RURAL LOCATIONS TO UPPER 60S WITHIN
PARTS OF NYC.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR OUTLYING, RURAL AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUS
TWO MORNINGS HAD RIVER VALLEY FOG AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE
SAME SCENARIO EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING. THESE RIVER LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG. ELSEWHERE WHERE TEMPERATURES COOL TO
NEAR THE DEWPOINT, ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
PATCHY FOG.
HRRR INDICATING SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHOWING VERY LOW LEVEL SATURATION IN SOME AREAS LOOKING AT NAM
AND RAP.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, KEEPING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS BUT GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE AND
MORE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASED. 850MB TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
RANGE OF 13 TO 15 DEGREES C FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY FEATURES A LITTLE HIGHER
SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS RELATIVELY
COOLER.
FOR SUNDAY, EXPECTING ANY LOW LEVEL FOG TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WITH NEARLY THE SAME 850MB TEMPERATURES AS
THE PREVIOUS DAY AND WITH A WARMER START TO THE MORNING THAN
THE PREVIOUS MORNING, THE SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SATURDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY WERE
TAKEN FROM NBM 90TH PERCENTILE, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND TWIN FORKS TO MID 80S OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ, THE INTERIOR AND NYC. THE TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION SHOWS SIMILAR HIGHS ALONG THE COAST COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY DESPITE A GREATER ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL WIND WITH ESSENTIALLY MORE SOUTHERLY WIND.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME QUITE
LIGHT. HOWEVER, MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AND AS A
RESULT THE COOLING OF TEMPERATURE AT NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW
LEVEL SATURATION TO BE ACHIEVED MORE EASILY. FORECAST LOWS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SOME OUTLYING INTERIOR AREAS TO MID
60S OVER PARTS OF NYC. OUTSIDE OF NYC, MORE FOG IS FORECAST, BUT
MOSTLY PATCHY COVERAGE. AGAIN, FOG COVERAGE COULD BE MORE,
HENCE AREAS OF FOG, CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.
FOR MONDAY, MORNING FOG BURNS OFF AND THE SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC
FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WARM BUT RELATIVELY COOLER DAY
COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY USED THE NBM AND
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH FORK TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST NJ AS WELL AS NYC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
NBM WAS FOLLOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
UNDER S/SW FLOW MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT.
* A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
* HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
* THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS WILL BE A GOOD 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK THANKS TO THE COLD
FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES
THEN GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH GENERALLY A SW
COMPONENT DURING THE DAY, AND LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY, ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF IFR ALONG THE COAST DURING
WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS G15 - 20KT ON WED, BECOMING N LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE ON TUESDAY WITH WAVES ON OCEAN WATERS
NEARING 5 FEET TUE NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS FALL BELOW CRITERIA ON
WED THEN RETURN WEDNESDAY WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...BR
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