134
FXUS61 KOKX 060230
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK,
MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHILE
THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CAPTURING LOWER LEVELS BECOMING NEARLY
SATURATED, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING SHALLOW SATURATION,
UNDER STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THUS, HAVE ADDED FOG AND
CLOUDS LATE EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE NYC METRO, WITH THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG. HAVE NOT GONE AS LOW AS ONE -
QUARTER STATUTE MILE VISIBILITY, ONLY TO ONE-HALF STATUTE MILE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE AIRMASS MONDAY WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 14C, AND DEEP
AFTERNOON MIXING, WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. WILL SEE SIMILAR
HIGHS MONDAY, IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NO RECORD HIGHS ARE
LIKELY MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ALSO A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MIXING IS POSSIBLE, SO NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT. HEIGHTS
FALL ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE, AND CLOUDS
INCREASING FARTHER. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE HIGHS OF THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS, JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER. DRY WEATHER REMAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TO THE WEST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
NBM WAS FOLLOWED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY POINTS:
* A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AROUND 0.75"-1.0" TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
* HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND REMAINS
OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS SOUTH AND
EAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND. NBM HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS WEEKEND FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. BASED ON LATEST 12Z FORECAST
GUIDANCE, IT SEEMS CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COOLER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON WED AND
DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE COLDER WITH LOWS WED NIGH IN THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S. THU NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR
MOST, BUT IN THE MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.
FOLLOWING THU NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR, LOCALLY
LIFR, VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT LONG ISLAND, SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT, AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. ANY LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR AFTER DAY BREAK MONDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SW FLOW AFTER DAY BREAK WILL
BECOME S LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10
KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: VFR. MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
OUTLYING TERMINALS POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SW WINDS G15-20KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES, WITH
SHOWERS, ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM. VFR RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW-N WIND
GUSTS 15-20KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND
THE GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE, GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST OCEAN
WATERS MAY APPROACH 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS ON WATERS MAY NEAR 25 KTS TUE NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT AND REMAIN NEAR 25 KT UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE
4-5 FT ON OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET
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