685
FXUS61 KOKX 061014
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
614 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
LATE WEEK/ LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
SOME TIME THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WAS MOST EVIDENT ON 11.2-3.9UM
CHANNEL DIFFERENCE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER SE CT AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. SPS ISSUED UNTIL 9 AM TO ADDRESS THIS. FOG OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NJ SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF STATEN ISLAND AND
NE NJ.
FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH TEMPS
QUICKLY RESPONDING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND HIGH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOWER/MID 80S IN MOST PLACES, AND THE 70S ALONG
COASTAL SE CT AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND, PER BLEND OF
NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AND GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAVE DONE
BETTER THAN STRAIGHT NBM WITH RECENT WARMTH. THIS ALSO LINES UP
FAIRLY WELL WITH MODEL FCST 925 MB TEMPS WHICH LOOK ABOUT 1
DEGREE C COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWER 60S IN NYC AND SURROUNDING SUBURBS, AND IN THE
50S ELSEWHERE. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS THE HIGH WEAKENS ON TUE, S FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ONE LAST TIME BEFORE A COOLER REGIME SETS IN.
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN TUE NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST
POP LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH FROPA.
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY E OF NYC GOING INTO WED
AFTERNOON, AND EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OUT
EAST MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY WED NIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER
ON WED, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S, THEN
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AS A SOMEWHAT BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW
GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES TRANSPORTS COOLER AIR DOWN INTO
THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NBM WAS FOLLOWED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. KEY POINTS:
* HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
* COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TEMPO TO PREVAILING MVFR-IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS UNTIL 12-14Z
MAINLY AT KGON AND KHPN, BUT POSSIBLY AT KISP AND KBDR AS WELL.
A LIGHT SW FLOW WILL BECOME S LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. LIGHTER SW
WINDS FOR TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE TONIGHT-TUESDAY: VFR. MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
OUTLYING TERMINALS POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SW WINDS G15-20KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES, WITH
SHOWERS, ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM. VFR RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW-N WIND
GUSTS 15-20KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
AS S FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON TUE, OCEAN SEAS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY BUILD TO 5
FT TUE NIGHT INTO WED. POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW MAY GUST TO 20 KT
DAYTIME WED, THEN AS WINDS VEER N GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 25-30
KT ON ALL WATERS WED NIGHT, WITH OCEAN SEAS 4-6 FT.
MINIMAL SCA COND ARE STILL LIKELY ON THE OCEAN THU MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT, THEN WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT INTO WED COULD BE AS
MUCH AS 3/4 TO 1 INCH ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT, AND 1/2 TO
3/4 INCH NORTH/WEST OF THERE INCLUDING NYC. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES
EXPECTED AS THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOME SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUE MORNING AND WED MORNING ON THE SOUTH
SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU, ON NEWARK BAY, AND ALONG THE
FAIRFIELD CT COASTLINE, WITH ONLY VERY MINOR DEPARTURES OF LESS
THAN 1/2 FOOT NEEDED TO TOUCH THRESHOLDS IN SPOTS. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO PREDICTS MINOR FLOODING FOR THE THU MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE BUT TENDS TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW, SO
ATTM THINK WATER LEVELS WILL STAY JUST BELOW FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL ISSUES ON SUNDAY. IT
IS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAILS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG
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