639
FXUS61 KOKX 061737
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND
SOME TIME THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND STRATUS THAT WAS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND HAS DISSIPATED, LEAVING
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY RESPONDING QUICKLY,
RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT 900 AM. HIGH TEMPS
LIKELY REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN MOST PLACES, AND THE 70S
ALONG COASTAL SE CT AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND, PER
BLEND OF NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AND GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
HAVE DONE BETTER THAN STRAIGHT NBM WITH RECENT WARMTH. THIS
ALSO LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH MODEL FCST 925 MB TEMPS WHICH
LOOK ABOUT 1 DEGREE C COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWER 60S IN NYC AND SURROUNDING SUBURBS, AND IN THE
50S ELSEWHERE. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS THE HIGH WEAKENS ON TUE, S FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S ONE LAST TIME BEFORE A COOLER REGIME SETS IN.
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN TUE NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST
POP LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
AND CAN'T RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH FROPA. SHOWER
CHANCES CONTINUE MAINLY E OF NYC GOING INTO WED AFTERNOON, AND
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OUT EAST MOST PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY WED NIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER ON WED, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S, THEN LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S AS A SOMEWHAT BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO
20-25 MPH AT TIMES TRANSPORTS COOLER AIR DOWN INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NBM WAS FOLLOWED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
* COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT SW FLOW WILL
BECOME S THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AT AROUND 10 KT OR
LESS. LIGHTER SW WINDS FOR TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR OUTLYING
TERMINALS POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SW
WINDS G15-20KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES, WITH
SHOWERS, ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM. VFR RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW-N WIND
GUSTS 15-20KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
AS S FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON TUE, OCEAN SEAS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY BUILD TO 5
FT TUE NIGHT INTO WED. POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW MAY GUST TO 20 KT
DAYTIME WED, THEN AS WINDS VEER N GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 25-30
KT ON ALL WATERS WED NIGHT, WITH OCEAN SEAS 4-6 FT.
MINIMAL SCA COND ARE STILL LIKELY ON THE OCEAN THU MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT, THEN WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT INTO WED COULD BE AS
MUCH AS 3/4 TO 1 INCH ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT, AND 1/2 TO
3/4 INCH NORTH/WEST OF THERE INCLUDING NYC. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES
EXPECTED AS THIS RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
SOME SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUE MORNING AND WED MORNING ON THE SOUTH
SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU, ON NEWARK BAY, AND ALONG THE
FAIRFIELD CT COASTLINE, WITH ONLY VERY MINOR DEPARTURES OF LESS
THAN 1/2 FOOT NEEDED TO TOUCH THRESHOLDS IN SPOTS. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO PREDICTS MINOR FLOODING FOR THE THU MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE BUT TENDS TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW, SO
ATTM THINK WATER LEVELS WILL STAY JUST BELOW FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL ISSUES ON SUNDAY. IT
IS STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO GO INTO DETAILS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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