062
FXUS61 KOKX 310541
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS UP INTO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WILL
SETTLE OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
TRIPLE POINT LOW PRESSURE NEAR/OVER LONG ISLAND WILL LIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK, TAKING LINGERING
SHOWERS WITH IT. EXPECT RAIN TO END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN HAVING ENDED FOR NE NJ AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT LIFTS NORTH.
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS
ANY COOLER, DRIER AIR IS LAGGING. INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS AS
WELL BASED ON THE SLOWLY INFILTRATION OF THESE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WIND PICK UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW DEEPENS
WHILE MOVING OUT OF NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN CANADA. STRONGEST WINDS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN/AROUND NYC FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH
SOME SUSTAINED VALUES CLOSE TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH, AND
LOWER VALUES INLAND BUT STILL GUSTING UP TO 35-40 MPH. ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 12 NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT,
INCLUDING IMPACT ON HALLOWEEN IN AREAS TO THE NORTH/WEST WHERE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER.
ON SATURDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING STRONG LOW AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. GUSTS 25-30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY, WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES CLOSER TO THE NYC METRO AREA AND THE COAST. THE
GRADIENT BEGINS RELAXING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH, WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTS ENDING ENDING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S BOTH FRI/SAT. LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, THEN A LITTLE COOLER
SAT NIGHT, 35-40 INLAND WITH SOME FROST, AND 40-45 FOR THE NYC
METRO AREA AND THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND THE SURFACE WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO SATURDAY DUE TO A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS, DRY AIR, AND WEAK WINDS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S INLAND AND
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. SOME MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS
IS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING OFFSHORE.
HIGHS MAY RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, THE MODELING CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE
HANDLING OF THE INTERACTION OF A DAMPENING SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE WAVES FAR ENOUGH APART THAT
ANY LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM PASSES WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A LOW CHANCE POP DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
PATTERN.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNING INTO WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.
MAINLY SUB VFR TO START, IMPROVING TO VFR INTO FRIDAY AM.
BAND OF STEADY RAIN HAS ADVANCED EAST OF THE REGION, WITH SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS PERSISTING LOCALLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS WORK IN FROM THE WEST, AND EXPECT
ALL TERMINALS TO BE DRY BY 6Z FRI OR JUST THEREAFTER. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAIN, MIST AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY LOWER VSBYS TO
MVFR AT TIMES, ALONG WITH IFR CIGS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH A
RETURN TO VFR TOWARD AND AFTER 6Z FRI. CIGS THEN LIKELY HANG
AROUND 4 KFT MUCH OF FRIDAY.
VARIABLE FLOW TO START AT MOST SITES, GOING SW TO W OVERNIGHT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DEVELOPING BY THE MORNING PUSH.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY, PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING AND CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. W WINDS 15-20KT, G25-30KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-30KT.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR EARLY. CHANCE OF MVFR LATE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY: MVFR EARLY, THEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
E-SE GALES WERE OCCURRING ON THE GREAT SOUTH BAY, EASTERN
OCEAN, AND THE WRN/CENTRAL SOUND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE. THESE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS LULL FOR A
PERIOD TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE W LATE TONIGHT.
GALES SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS BY SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT, AND FOR SIMPLICITY'S SAKE REPLACED ANY GALE
WATCHES WITH GALE WARNINGS, AND EXTENDED THOSE WARNINGS IN TIME
TO RUN THROUGH FRI NIGHT ON ALL WATERS DESPITE THE LULL, AND
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING ON THE OCEAN.
HYDROLOGY
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE NYC METRO AND HUDSON
RIVER. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A CONVECTIVE
LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WORKING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT. AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.5 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD NUISANCE FLOODING LIKELY. LOCAL AMTS
AS HIGH AS 3-4 INCHES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED WITH HIGH TIDE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LOWER NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF LONG ISLAND. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN MINOR FLOODING UP THE
HUDSON RIVER WITH THE PIERMONT GAUGE WELL INTO THE MINOR
CATEGORY. THE STRONGEST WINDS COINCIDED WITH HIGH TIDE ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURGE. LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRED
ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS/BACK BAYS OF NASSAU AND
WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE
THIS EVENING.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING
ACROSS COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND COASTAL WESTCHESTER. LOCALLY MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL BRONX AND ALONG EAST END OF
LONG ISLAND.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGH TIDE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AS WATER
MAY NOT RECEDE QUICK ENOUGH WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY.
NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
BREAKING WAVES OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE OCEANFRONT WILL RESULT IN
BEACH EROSION FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE OCEANFRONT ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND. MINOR DAMAGE TO DUNE STRUCTURES IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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