802
FXUS61 KOKX 310840
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
440 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS UP INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA TODAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE BY
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WIND PICK UP AGAIN ON TODAY FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
WHILE MOVING OUT OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
STRONGEST WINDS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN/AROUND NYC FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH SOME SUSTAINED VALUES CLOSE TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH, AND LOWER VALUES INLAND BUT STILL GUSTING
UP TO 35-40 MPH. ISOLATED PEAK GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 12
NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT, INCLUDING IMPACT ON HALLOWEEN IN AREAS TO
THE NORTH/WEST WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT WILL STILL BE RATHER STRONG THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, THEN BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING STRONG LOW AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. GUSTS 20-25 MPH APPEAR LIKELY, WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES CLOSER TO THE NYC METRO AREA AND THE COAST.
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE GRADIENT BEGINS
RELAXING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST, ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH, WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTS
ENDING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S BOTH FRI/SAT. LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S, THEN A LITTLE
COOLER SAT NIGHT, 30-35 INLAND WITH SOME FREEZE/FROST CONDITIONS,
AND 40-45 FOR THE NYC METRO AREA AND THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND THE SURFACE WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO SATURDAY DUE TO A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, DRY AIR, AND WEAK WINDS WILL LEAD TO A
CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
INLAND AND UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE. SOME MODERATION
IN THE AIRMASS IS LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
HIGHS MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NW, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE KEEP THE WAVES FAR ENOUGH
APART THAT ANY LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A LOW CHANCE POP
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN. HOWEVER, EASTERN
AREAS, SUCH AS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WILL SEE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAIN, AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO ANY
PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS THAT OCCURS WELL OFFSHORE, WARRANTING
HIGHER POPS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNING INTO WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT, MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, SUSTAINED WINDS
20-25KT, WITH GUSTS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING 25-30KT, INCREASING
TO AROUND 40KT LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY BE AS HIGH AS 45-50KT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BE AS HIGH AS 45-50KT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR. W WINDS 15-20KT, G20-30KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-25KT.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR EARLY. CHANCE OF MVFR LATE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY: MVFR EARLY, THEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR. NW WINDS G25-
30KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALES RETURN TO ALL WATERS BY MID MORNING TODAY AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE CRITERIA BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
WITH GUSTS STILL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
WAVES BUILD TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO 11 TO 17 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS, AND 5 TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND, DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE SOUND WILL FALL BE 5 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE OCEAN
WATERS DROP BELOW 5 FT BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS AND WAVES LIKELY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE GREAT SOUTH BAY IS BETWEEN 500 AM AND 700 AM
EDT WITH MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS POSSIBLY JUST BRIEFLY
TOUCHED. THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS
FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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