900
FXUS61 KOKX 311425
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1025 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWARD, MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WILL
SETTLE OFFSHORE BY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WIND PICK UP AGAIN ON TODAY FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS WHILE MOVING OUT OF NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. STRONGEST WINDS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN/AROUND NYC FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY, WITH SOME SUSTAINED VALUES CLOSE TO
30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH, AND LOWER VALUES INLAND BUT STILL
GUSTING UP TO 35-40 MPH. ISOLATED PEAK GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM NOON
UNTIL MIDNIGHT, INCLUDING IMPACT ON HALLOWEEN IN AREAS TO THE
NORTH/WEST WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT WILL STILL BE RATHER STRONG THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, THEN BRISK CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING STRONG LOW AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. GUSTS 20-25 MPH APPEAR LIKELY, WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES CLOSER TO THE NYC METRO AREA AND THE COAST.
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE GRADIENT BEGINS
RELAXING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST, ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH, WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTS
ENDING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S BOTH FRI/SAT. LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, THEN A LITTLE COOLER
SAT NIGHT, 30-35 INLAND WITH SOME FREEZE/FROST CONDITIONS, AND
40-45 FOR THE NYC METRO AREA AND THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TO END THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT.
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND THE SURFACE WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL MUCH WEAKER COMPARED TO SATURDAY DUE TO A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, DRY AIR, AND WEAK WINDS WILL LEAD TO A
CHILLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
INLAND AND UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE. SOME MODERATION
IN THE AIRMASS IS LIKELY ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
HIGHS MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NW, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE KEEP THE WAVES FAR ENOUGH
APART THAT ANY LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A LOW CHANCE POP
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN. HOWEVER, EASTERN
AREAS, SUCH AS THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WILL SEE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAIN, AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO ANY
PHASING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS THAT OCCURS WELL OFFSHORE, WARRANTING
HIGHER POPS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNING INTO WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWARD, MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, SUSTAINED AT 20-25 KT
AND GUSTING TO 25-30 KT, INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PEAK GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 45-50
KT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PEAK GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BE AS HIGH AS 45-50 KT.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-25KT.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR LATE. SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY: MVFR EARLY, THEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR. NW WINDS G25-
30KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WESTERLY GALES HAVE ALREADY RETURNED TO THE OCEAN AND ERN
SOUND, AND SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE CRITERIA BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCA'S WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
THEREAFTER, WITH GUSTS STILL IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
SEAS BUILD TO 11-17 FT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS, 8-12 FT ON
THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS, 6-9 FT ON THE CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUND,
4-7 FT ON THE WESTERN SOUND, AND 3-5 FT ON THE LOWER HARBOR,
THEN START SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SOUND WILL FALL BELOW
5 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON, AND THE OCEAN WATERS BY SAT NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MON.
WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST
AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...JP
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