674
FXUS61 KOKX 010542
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
142 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PIVOT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER
IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
WITH THE WINDS AND GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND CONTINUING
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS EAST
OF NYC LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO 35-40 ACROSS SOME INTERIOR VALLEY SPOTS,
WITH 40S ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ON SATURDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO
BUILD FROM THE WEST. GUSTS 25-30 MPH APPEAR LIKELY, WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES CLOSER TO THE NYC METRO AREA AND THE COAST. THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS RELAXING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY AND AS THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD FROM
THE WEST, ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH, WITH ANY LINGERING GUSTS
ENDING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE 55-60. LOWS (THE
LOWER OF NBM AND A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND) WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S
INVOF NYC AND IN THE 30S ELSEWHERE SAT NIGHT, THEN FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST IS LIKELY INLAND BOTH NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTER A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES PROGRESS THROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD
DURING LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AFTERWARDS, A SEMI-ZONAL
LONG WAVE PATTERN PREVAILS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH A MORE NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE AND WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE DURING
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN ARGUES FOR LESS INTERACTION FOR OUR REGION, WITH
INTERACTION MORE LIKELY TO THE NORTH FOR NORTHEAST NE AND UP
INTO COASTAL SE CANADA. OVERALL GLOBAL NWP CONSENSUS HAS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOISTURE GETTING OFFSHORE WITH MORE OF JUST
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
MEAN LOWER POPS AND LESS QPF OVERALL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LIKELY PIVOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG GLOBAL NWP DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT CHOSE TO STICK WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
AND STAY CLOSE TO BLEND, THUS BEING OPEN TO TIMING CHANGES AND
DIFFERENCES. BEHIND THIS EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A DRY
REGIME PREVAILS WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR.
GUSTY W WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM, WITH SPEEDS
LARGELY 10-20 KT GUSTS 20-30 KT, WITH SOME DIMINISHING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE W FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE GUSTS SUBSIDE. FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT NW INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE A LULL
IN THE GUSTS AT TIMES. TIMING OF GUST CESSATION ON SATURDAY MAY
BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. LIGHTENING W WIND, BECOMING NW LATE.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: SHOWERS/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WESTERLY GALES WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE GALE WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 AM SAT FOR
THE SOUND AND THE OCEAN W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET, AND UNTIL NOON
SAT FOR THE OCEAN E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
SCA COND ON ALL WATERS THEREAFTER DAYTIME SAT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT, WITH QUIET COND SUNDAY INTO MON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MON
AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MON NIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN AND SOME OF THE SOUTHERN NON-OCEAN WATERS. BY
TUE MORNING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
WATERS ON A WNW FLOW WITH WIDESPREAD 6-FT OCEAN SEAS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
TUE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF TUE NIGHT ON THE OCEAN AND
PERHAPS THE EASTERN MOST NON- OCEAN WATERS.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WED, WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WED.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-335-
340-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ338-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...BG/MET
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG
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