344
FXUS61 KOKX 010704
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
304 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PIVOT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY
BE 30KT OR LESS. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION ENDING ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, GUSTS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE OR END BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT, 5 MPH OR LESS, AND SKIES CLEARING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE MID 30S, AND A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR
FREEZING, AND FROST IS LIKELY. HOWEVER, WITH THE END OF THE
GROWING SEASON ACROSS THE INTERIOR NON FROST OF FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL BE ISSUED. SEE PNSOKX FOR DETAILS.
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW
PRESSURE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH BEGIN TO APPROACH TO THE SOUTH,
AND THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL ZONAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH A MORE NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE AND WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE DURING
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN ARGUES FOR LESS INTERACTION FOR OUR REGION, WITH
INTERACTION MORE LIKELY TO THE NORTH FOR NORTHEAST NE AND UP
INTO COASTAL SE CANADA. OVERALL GLOBAL NWP CONSENSUS HAS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOISTURE GETTING OFFSHORE WITH MORE OF JUST
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
MEAN LOWER POPS AND LESS QPF OVERALL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LIKELY PIVOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG GLOBAL NWP DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT CHOSE TO STICK WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
AND STAY CLOSE TO BLEND, THUS BEING OPEN TO TIMING CHANGES AND
DIFFERENCES. BEHIND THIS EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A DRY
REGIME PREVAILS WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR.
GUSTY W WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM, WITH SPEEDS
LARGELY 10-20 KT GUSTS 20-30 KT, WITH SOME DIMINISHING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE W FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE GUSTS SUBSIDE. FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT NW INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS THROUGH DAYBREAK. THERE MAY BE A LULL
IN THE GUSTS AT TIMES. TIMING OF GUST CESSATION ON SATURDAY MAY
BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. LIGHTENING W WIND, BECOMING NW LATE.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: SHOWERS/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT DROPPED THE GALE
WARNING FOR NEW YORK HARBOR AND ISSUED A SCA THROUGH TODAY. ON
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS A GALE WARNING REMAINS UNTIL 10Z,
EXCEPT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE THE
WARNING WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z. ONCE THE GALE WARNINGS END A
SCA WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, EXCEPT ON THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WHERE SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO LATE
TONIGHT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN AND SOME OF THE SOUTHERN NON-OCEAN WATERS.
BY TUE MORNING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
WATERS ON A WNW FLOW WITH WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7 FOOT OCEAN SEAS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
TUE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF TUE NIGHT ON THE OCEAN AND
PERHAPS THE EASTERN MOST NON- OCEAN WATERS.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WED, WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WED.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE/MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
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