364
FXUS61 KOKX 011437
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PIVOT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER
IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GUSTS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FRIDAY,
GENERALLY 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO
BEGIN DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER
AND MID 40S ELSEWHERE. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE INLAND, BUT THE
GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR THESE ZONES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS IN NE NJ LIKELY
TOUCHING 60 DEGREES. FROST WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING CLOUDS
AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN INVERTED TROUGH BEGIN TO APPROACH TO THE
SOUTH, AND THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL ZONAL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WITH A MORE NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE AND WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH FEATURE DURING
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE
PATTERN ARGUES FOR LESS INTERACTION FOR OUR REGION, WITH
INTERACTION MORE LIKELY TO THE NORTH FOR NORTHEAST NE AND UP
INTO COASTAL SE CANADA. OVERALL GLOBAL NWP CONSENSUS HAS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOISTURE GETTING OFFSHORE WITH MORE OF JUST
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
MEAN LOWER POPS AND LESS QPF OVERALL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LIKELY PIVOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG GLOBAL NWP DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT CHOSE TO STICK WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
AND STAY CLOSE TO BLEND, THUS BEING OPEN TO TIMING CHANGES AND
DIFFERENCES. BEHIND THIS EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE A DRY
REGIME PREVAILS WITH DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR.
GUSTY WNW WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE GUSTS SUBSIDE. THE FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT
NW TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH/LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: SHOWERS/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HAVE CONVERTED THE GALE WARNING TO AN SCA ON THE OCEAN BETWEEN
FIRE ISLAND AND MORICHES INLET AS WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW GALE
THIS MORNING. THE GALE CONTINUES EAST OF MORICHES INLET THROUGH
2PM. OTHERWISE, SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EARLY
EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING MOST
WATERS TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS AROUND 8 PM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED BETWEEN 5-7 FT. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATE
TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY
NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN AND SOME OF THE SOUTHERN NON-OCEAN WATERS.
BY TUE MORNING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
WATERS ON A WNW FLOW WITH WIDESPREAD 5 TO 7 FOOT OCEAN SEAS.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
TUE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF TUE NIGHT ON THE OCEAN AND
PERHAPS THE EASTERN MOST NON- OCEAN WATERS.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WED, WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WED.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ353.
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JE/MET
AVIATION...JP/JC
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
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