101
FXUS61 KOKX 020222
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1022 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, REMAINING OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A QUICK PASSING
LOW MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH MAY BRING SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
INLAND AND UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. FROST IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED ACROSS
THESE ZONES SO NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE IN THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND, BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO WARRANT ANY ADVISORY.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF NE NJ
MAY TOUCH 60 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER
CHILLY, BUT CALM AND CLEAR NIGHT IS FORECAST. LOWS MAY BE A
TOUCH MILDER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
ELSEWHERE.
A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACH THE EAST COAST
ON MONDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA, CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN SEPARATE, BUT THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INTERACTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND LIFT, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. THE NBM PRECIP
PROBABILITIES HAVE FLUCTUATED A BIT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, BUT
THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS. THE TIMING FOR ANY RAIN, WHICH WOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE, LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FAST, PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL SWEEP THE COLD
FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW AWAY FROM THE AREA BRINGING AN END TO
ANY RAIN. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS QUICKLY DEPART EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONDITIONS SHOULD END UP MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO END UP A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETS UP IN THE LONG TERM WITH A SERIES
OF LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING BY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
BY TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, BUT
WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST, GUSTY NW FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE NW AND SLIDES NORTH OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARD EVENING AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER DAY
OF GUSTY NW FLOW EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SUCCESSIVE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MAY IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RESPECTIVELY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, HIGHS EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
POSSIBLY LOW 60S. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
GUSTY NW FLOW ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR WHERE THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT BEING IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE UPPER
40S ALONG THE COAST. THE EXCEPTION IS THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN LOWS IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR.
LIGHT NORTHWEST OR LIGHT/VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN BACK
TO MORE WESTERLY THEN SW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. COASTAL
TERMINALS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER 20Z WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY PM: VFR.
MONDAY: SHOWERS/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT IN THE MORNING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AND ON THE
OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS MAY
BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, THROUGH ABOUT 10PM. OTHERWISE, SCA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THROUGH 2AM
SUNDAY, MAINLY IN ELEVATED SEAS 5-6 FT. SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE
BELOW 5 FT THEREAFTER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. S FLOW INCREASES LATE MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN,
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS.
SCA CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY WITH WAVES NEAR 5 FEET
AND GUSTS TO 30KT. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON ALL OTHER WATERS
TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TO NEAR SCA ON THE OCEAN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
UPDATE...DBR
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