913
FXUS61 KOKX 030715
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
215 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THEN APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. A QUICK PASSING LOW MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AND HEADS NE THROUGH THE DAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA, ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE, UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM CANADA HELPS PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE EVENING.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE CREATED BY THE TWO
SYSTEMS. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LIFT FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF A WETTER SCENARIO, SO HAVE INTRODUCED
LIKELY POPS FOR EASTERN LI AN SE CT. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF
RAIN WOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE OF 100-150 J/KG, ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN AREAS, DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, SO SOME LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. ADDED A SHORT PERIOD OF SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER IN THE EARLY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION THANKS STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DRY AND TURNING
BREEZY OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH WNW GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
WINDS START DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING IN. NBM TEMPS WERE CLOSELY
FOLLOWED IN THE SHORT TERM. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SETS UP IN THE LONG TERM WITH A SERIES OF
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE NW THAT SLIDES NORTH OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARD EVENING AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER DAY
OF GUSTY NW FLOW EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SUCCESSIVE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MAY IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RESPECTIVELY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, HIGHS EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
POSSIBLY LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAYS WILL BE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH GUSTY NW FLOW ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR WHERE THE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE EXCEPTION IS THURSDAY
NIGHT WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN LOWS IN
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT NEARS THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR KISP AND KGON WHICH MAY BRIEFLY FLIRT
WITH MVFR CIGS AFTER 18Z. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT KGON AND KBDR AFTER TUESDAY 00Z UNTIL ABOUT 04Z, THOUGH
CIGS REMAIN VFR.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHERLY
AFTER SUNRISE AT 10 KT OR LESS, THEN WESTERLY AND GUSTING
20-25KTS NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TODAY MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT MONDAY NIGHT AND G25-30
KT ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT SW-S WINDS G15-20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING W G15-25 KT AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: VFR. SW-S WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE SHOULD BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS THEN
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND AN ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK
POINT. GUSTS 25-30 KT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SPC HREF IS SHOWING A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF
SEEING 30 KT WINDS, WITH MAX WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 35 KT OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUND. ADDITIONALLY, HRRR 10 M
WIND GUST POTENTIAL ALSO SUPPORTS EVEN HIGHER GUSTS OF AROUND 40
KT ACROSS SOME OF THESE OCEAN ZONES. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
GREATER THAN 35 KT IS NOT AS HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, AND SEEING 40 TO 45 KT AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER,
ALONG WITH 35 TO 40 KT AVERAGE IN THE MIXED LAYER. THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE PASSAGE. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ISSUE A
GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO
MONTAUK POINT. THE REMAINING OCEAN ZONE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE, BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL QUITE HIT IT OFTEN
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WAVES BUILD TO 5 TO 9 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATE TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.
WAVES SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FT ON THE OCEAN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
OTHER WATERS MAY SEE SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE OCEAN
SEES GALE CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALM CONDITIONS MAY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT SCA CONDITIONS
QUICKLY RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-355.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC/DBR
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...JP
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