601
FXUS61 KOKX 032046
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A QUICK MOVING LOW MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN, A CANADIAN LOW BRINGS THROUGH A COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT
UNTIL ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
A WEAK LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND
THEN EAST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AREA WILL BE
ON THE NORTHERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH ONLY THE EASTERN AREAS
POSSIBLY SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. USED A BLEND OF THE CAMS AND
NBM FOR THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WHICH HANDLED THE SYSTEM
WELL.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, THAT HAS BECOME NEGATIVE,
WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING, AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z. ALSO USED A
BLEND OF THE CAMS AND NBM HOURLY PROBABILITIES FOR THIS SYSTEM.
AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS, I.
E., ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS CONNECTICUT. WEAK
SURFACE AND MUCAPE OF 100-250 J/KG DEVELOPS FROM AROUND 23Z
THROUGH 04Z AND KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR
CONNECTICUT AND INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WILL BE DRY AFTER THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE
AND RATHER STRONG COLD ADVECTION WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE, WITH
GUSTS DEVELOPING TO AROUND 30KT, AND THE HIGHEST WINDS AND
GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS THE OFFSHORE
LOW DEEPENS AND IS PICKED UP BY THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS REMAIN BE ADVISORY LEVELS. USED A BLEND OF THE NBM,
NBM 90TH, AND CONSSHORT FOR THE WINDS AND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FAST NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH
AND THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEEPENS AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTS ARE POTENTIALLY HIGHER THAN TONIGHT'S
BUT WILL LIKELY ALSO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR
WINDS AND GUSTS USED A BLEND OF THE NBM AND NBM 90TH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY,
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN BREEZY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION,
BUT THIS GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, LEADING TO WINDS RAMPING DOWN. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
A CANADIAN LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, DRAGGING THROUGH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT RAIN AND
WIND. RAIN IS MAINLY TIMED FOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, PEAKING FRIDAY
EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, WE DRY OUT AGAIN UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM
IMPACTS US SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TIMING AND MAGNITUDE STILL VARY AMONG
THE GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, SO FOR NOW ONLY CARRYING SLIGHT
AND CHANCE POPS. STRONG WINDS, TYPICAL OF FALL, WILL AGAIN RETURN
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD EACH
DAY WHILE LOWS VARY A LITTLE MORE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S (OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
SPOTS). SW FLOW AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THEREAFTER
COOLER NIGHTS RETURN TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR EASTERN AND NORTHERN
MOST TERMINALS. ALSO A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR KISP
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND CLOSER TO 0Z FOR KGON. AN ADDITIONAL
LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, MAINLY IMPACTING KSWF AND
KHPN BEFORE 0Z, AND KBDR, KGON AFTER 0Z UNTIL ABOUT 04Z, THOUGH CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WITH THE SHOWERS AFTER 00Z FOR EASTERN TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE KGON AND KISP TAFS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS, THEN WINDS BECOME WEST-
NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-28KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF GUSTS THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT, SUBSIDING TOWARDS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT SW-S WINDS 15G25KT IN THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING W G20-30KT AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 15G25KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: VFR. SW-S WINDS 10-15,G20-25KT POSSIBLE. RAIN WITH SUB VFR
AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH W WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE DEVELOPING TONIGHT BEHIND
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND RATHER STRONG COLD ADVECTION WIND
GUSTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, AND HAVE
NOW ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE NEW YORK HARBOR
WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. GUSTS IN
THE WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WATERS ARE MARGINAL FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS, BUT TOWARD THE CENTRAL SOUND WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE SO
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN SOUND IN THE GALE WARNING. ONCE
GALE FORCE GUSTS END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST WATERS.
THEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST, ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS, AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE HWOOKX, HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
GALES SHOULD END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUALLY WEAKENS INTO THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WAVES
ON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. GALES
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON OCEAN WATERS WITH SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ON NON
OCEAN WATERS AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY AND
REMAIN BELOW SCA-LEVELS UNTIL OUR NEXT SYSTEM PASSES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ338.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET
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