714
FXUS61 KOKX 040531
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1231 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A QUICK MOVING LOW THEN MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEN, A CANADIAN LOW
BRINGS THROUGH A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT UNTIL ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA. THEN WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
FORCE AND RATHER STRONG COLD ADVECTION, WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND
GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
DEEPENS AND IS PICKED UP BY THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS REMAIN BE ADVISORY LEVELS. USED A BLEND OF THE NBM,
NBM 90TH, AND CONSSHORT FOR THE WINDS AND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A FAST NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH
AND THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEEPENS AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTS ARE POTENTIALLY HIGHER THAN TONIGHT'S
BUT WILL LIKELY ALSO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR
WINDS AND GUSTS USED A BLEND OF THE NBM AND NBM 90TH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY,
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL
STILL REMAIN BREEZY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION,
BUT THIS GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, LEADING TO WINDS RAMPING DOWN. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
A CANADIAN LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, DRAGGING THROUGH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT RAIN AND
WIND. RAIN IS MAINLY TIMED FOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, PEAKING FRIDAY
EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, WE DRY OUT AGAIN UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM
IMPACTS US SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TIMING AND MAGNITUDE STILL VARY AMONG
THE GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, SO FOR NOW ONLY CARRYING SLIGHT
AND CHANCE POPS. STRONG WINDS, TYPICAL OF FALL, WILL AGAIN RETURN
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD EACH
DAY WHILE LOWS VARY A LITTLE MORE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S (OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
SPOTS). SW FLOW AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THEREAFTER
COOLER NIGHTS RETURN TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
VFR.
WNW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25KT THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH, THEN
INCREASING TOWARD 30KT LATE THIS MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH AND LOSE GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LEFT/SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
EVENING. END TIME OF GUSTS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT SW-S WINDS 15G25KT IN THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING W G20-30KT AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 15G25KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: VFR. SW-S WINDS 10-15,G20-25KT POSSIBLE. RAIN WITH SUB VFR
AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH W WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION, A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE NEW YORK HARBOR WATERS
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. GUSTS IN THE
WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WATERS ARE MARGINAL FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS, BUT TOWARD THE CENTRAL SOUND WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE SO
DECIDED TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN SOUND IN THE GALE WARNING. ONCE
GALE FORCE GUSTS, END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST WATERS.
THEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH
OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST, ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS, AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE HWOOKX, HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
GALES SHOULD END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUALLY WEAKENS INTO THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WAVES
ON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. GALES
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON OCEAN WATERS WITH SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ON NON
OCEAN WATERS AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY AND
REMAIN BELOW SCA-LEVELS UNTIL OUR NEXT SYSTEM PASSES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BC/JC
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET
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