974
FXUS61 KOKX 042047
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MOVING
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY. A QUICK MOVING LOW THEN MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEN, A CANADIAN LOW BRINGS
THROUGH A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT UNTIL ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN, A CANADIAN LOW BRINGS THROUGH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FROST ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE GROWING SEASON ENDED NO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
***HIGH IMPACT LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING***
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE DURING WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE QUICK
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW
YORK AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING, ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION, STRONG WINDS AND
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTION OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THE HIGHER WINDS AND
GUSTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, AND AS A RESULT, A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHT RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY
THE QUICK MOVING LOW, AND WITH SOME INSTABILITY INLAND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD MIX DOWN HIGHER WINDS,
AND STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
AND THE INTERIOR IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND GUSTS RATHER QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THURSDAY AND THE
LOW MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE WEST. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* RAIN AND WIND EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
* DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH A LARGE PART OF
SUNDAY.
* ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED JET
STREAM WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND WIND LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR FILTERING IN LEADING TO A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY
WHERE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, AS A RESULT.
A CANADIAN LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, DRAGGING THROUGH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT RAIN AND
WIND. RAIN IS MAINLY TIMED FOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, PEAKING FRIDAY
EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, WE DRY OUT AGAIN UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM
IMPACTS US SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TIMING STILL VARIES AMONG THE
GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, SO FOR NOW ONLY CARRYING SLIGHT AND
CHANCE POPS. STRONG WINDS, TYPICAL OF FALL, WILL AGAIN RETURN WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, REMAINING QUITE
WARM FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO SW FLOW AND RAINFALL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACH EARLY IN
THE DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE DROPPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WHILE HIGHS
SUNDAY REACH THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
ASIDE FROM RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH A LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, IT IS
FOLLOWED BY A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE JET STREAM
DIGS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT
AND OUR LOCATION IN AN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENT SEGMENT OF A
STRENGTHENING JET STREAM, COULD LEAD TO CONTINUED SLIGHT TO LOW-END
CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY ONLY
REACH 45 TO 50 WHILE THEY DROP TO BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN AMPLE FORCING, ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS
COULD TURN TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS STILL VERY FAR OUT, SO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, FOR NOW, IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOWFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNLIKELY TO
ACCUMULATE IN MOST AREAS GIVEN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND FROPA.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
LIFT TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
VFR.
WNW WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THE EVENING PUSH. GUSTS WILL BE
MOSTLY 20-25KT FOR THE CITY TERMINALS, WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING
AND GUSTS ENDING THIS EVENING BY 0Z. SUSTAINED WINDS EVENTUALLY
FALLING BELOW 10KT TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE JUST LEFT/SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THIS
EVENING, ALTHOUGH KTEB MAY BE RIGHT AT 310 AT TIMES. END TIME OF
GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
***HIGH IMPACT WINDS AND GUSTS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING***
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR DURING DAY WITH SW-S WINDS 15G25KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY VFR, WINDS
BECOMING W 20-30G40-50KT AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 15G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: VFR. SW-S WINDS 10-15,G20-25KT POSSIBLE. RAIN WITH SUB VFR
AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH W WINDS.
SUNDAY: POCKETS OF SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS, WITH SE WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
***HIGH IMPACT WINDS AND GUSTS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING***
HAZARDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ON THE FORECAST WATERS WITH A SCA IN
EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH 800 PM EST, AND ON THE OCEAN
WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THROUGH 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
A QUICK MOVING AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
WATERS LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND STRONG GUSTS
MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES TO THE
EAST. WITH THIS POTENTIAL A STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDES, WITH A
SUPER FULL MOON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WILL LEAD TO ABNORMALLY LOW
WATER LEVELS FOR THE LOW TIDES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. WATER LEVELS COULD FALL TO 2 FT BELOW MLLW LEVELS. THIS
CAN LEAD TO HAZARDOUS NAVIGATING CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST, AND
FOR MOORED BOATS. A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SCA-LEVEL GUSTS ALONG WITH NEAR GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON OCEAN
WATERS WITH SCA-LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED ON NON OCEAN WATERS AS OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA-
LEVELS UNTIL OUR NEXT SYSTEM PASSES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-355.
STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-335-340.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ338-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET
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