428
FXUS61 KOKX 210247
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
947 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY WITH A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA NEXT
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
GIVEN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING, RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS VERY EFFICIENTLY COOLED OFF MUCH OF THE AREA MORE
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT,
MAINLY FOR OUTLYING AREAS AWAY FROM THE NYC METRO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND BASICALLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. AFTER THAT
MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE W AND SW.
THEREFORE LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO DROP THROUGH THE EARLY
TO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A
FLOOR PUT IN PLACE ON TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES RADIATING QUICKLY AND THE AIR MASS NOT
OVERLY DRY LOOK FOR FROST TO FORM IN THE NON-METRO AREAS ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 07-08Z MORE UPPER AND
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVES IN. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN MUCH OF THE METRO, TO MAINLY
MIDDLE 20S AND 30S ELSEWHERE.
LOOK FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. A RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SW GETS
ESTABLISHED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEW POINT READINGS BEGIN
TO INCH UP INTO THE 40S. THIS ADVECTION OF A MILDER AIR MASS WILL
GET TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS DESPITE CLOUDS, MAINLY
INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
DURING FRIDAY EVENING CLOUDS LOWER WITH THE NWP GUIDANCE NOW NOT AS
BULLISH ON RAIN PROBABILITIES. CONSENSUS NWP POPS HAVE CONTINUED TO
COME DOWN SOME. NOW INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS IN THE 0-3Z TIMEFRAME,
WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS APPLIED TO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS AND AFTER 06Z. THE REASON FOR GUIDANCE
BACKING OFF IS THE SUPPRESSION OF MOISTURE AS IT STREAKS ENE OUT OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SUPPRESSION IS BEING
CAUSED BY A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
INTO SE CANADA AND THUS A FURTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SERVES TO
DAMPEN THE MORE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MAKING LOW PRESSURE WEAKER AND
MORE ELONGATED. THIS RESULTS MORE IN A WAVY FRONTAL SYSTEM PER SE
WHICH WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY SPINNING UP MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO DRIVE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. THUS CHANCE TO LOW END
LIKELY POPS ARE UTILIZED INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
MAINLY JUST UNDER A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID EXPECTED.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT EAST WITH
RAIN GETTING EAST EARLY ON. THE TIMING OF CLEARING JUST BEHIND THE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE 12-13Z NW TO 16-18Z SE. THUS AFTER
A CLOUDY START, LOOK FOR CLEARING TO WORK IN FROM WNW TO ESE THROUGH
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE AIR MASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER OVERALL
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. IT DOES TURN SEASONABLY COLD SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BELOW FREEZING IN ALL OUTLYING
AREAS, WITH 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST, WITH
MIDDLE 30S INTO THE METRO UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF
RAIN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WITH THE
EXTENT AND DURATION OF ANY RAIN.
* SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BECOME MILDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY THANKSGIVING.
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
RIDGING TO RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SLIDE
TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH WARM ADVECTION RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS A
STEADY RAIN WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AND ANY
TRAILING WAVE. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST, PUTTING THE REGION IN A MILDER REGIME. THE MAIN QUESTIONS
REVOLVE AROUND WHETHER A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT. IF A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT, ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN/SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. OTHERWISE, THE COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH
MOSTLY DRY AS THE MAIN FORCING APPEARS TO PASS WELL TO OUR NW. THESE
DETAILS MAY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS TO RESOLVE IN THE MODELING, BUT THE
NBM CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR NOW. GUIDANCE IS THEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A CLOUD DECK OF
AROUND 3KFT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD
MOVE OVERHEAD 3-7Z FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH THE INITIAL LEADING
EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK BEING ERODED AS IT APPROACHES. THIS MAY
RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY MORNING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
MVFR CIGS, OPTED TO LEAVE IN A TEMPO. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS THEN
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATER AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST THEN
BECOMING A LIGHT S FLOW, OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH A SHIFT
MORE TOWARD THE SW FRIDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KT HOWEVER.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES IN RAIN.
BECOMING VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SW WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING NW TO N SATURDAY 5 TO 10 KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SOME INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE N AND NW
WITH PRIMARILY SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAILING, ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO A PORTION OF SATURDAY EVENING.
AFTERWARDS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS
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