037
FXUS61 KOKX 210612
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
112 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TODAY AS IT SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE THEN PASSES NOT TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD TOWARDS THE
AREA NEXT THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST LEAVES US WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY, BUT
REMAINING DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF
YESTERDAY IN SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE RANGE
OF 50-55 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO
REGARDING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE LOW ITSELF IS WEAK, UPPER DIVERGENCE COURTESY
OF FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF A JET STREAK COUPLET SHOULD HELP BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL TO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NBM 6-HOUR POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT MATCHES THIS
THINKING. GREATEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVERALL WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED
AS RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR REST OF SATURDAY WITH CLEARING AND
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY NEAR NORMAL AGAIN AT 50-55.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE REGION DURING SUNDAY
WITH A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF
RAIN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
* SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, BECOMING MILDER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY THANKSGIVING.
NBM WAS FOLLOWED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. REGARDING THE RAIN
CHANCES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING, HIGHEST CHANCES STILL
APPEAR TO BE DURING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS UNLIKELY.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT AT LEAST THERE'S A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENCE THAT CHANCES ARE NO MORE THAN 50%. THEN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE MOST PART
FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOTION WITH THE MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM,
LEAVING US WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. A CLOUD DECK OF 3-5KFT IS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE MORNING PUSH. AN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MVFR
CIGS RETURN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH THE TIMING OF
ANY CATEGORY CHANGES DUE TO CEILINGS IS LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT TO IFR WITH APPROACH
OF -SHRA MAINLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING A LIGHT SW
FLOW FRIDAY MORNING. SW WINDS CONTINUE BEFORE A SHIFT TO THE W AND
NW SATURDAY EVENING AND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE TIMING OF ANY CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES IN RAIN.
BECOMING VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SW WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING NW TO N SATURDAY 5 TO 10 KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT
ON THE OCEAN DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NEXT CHANCE OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING, BUT A BETTER CHANCE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET/MW
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC
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