751
FXUS61 KOKX 211913
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
213 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NOT TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COUPLED WITH
UPPER DIVERGENCE COURTESY OF FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF A JET
STREAK COUPLET, THIS SHOULD HELP BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT
RAINFALL TO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NBM
6-HOUR POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT MATCHES THIS THINKING. GREATEST
CHANCES OF RAIN OVERALL WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL
MID-MORNING SATURDAY. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED AS RAIN
AMOUNTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH CLEARING AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY NEAR NORMAL AGAIN AT 50-55.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S, AND EXPECT FROST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, EVEN INTO
PORTIONS OF NYC. A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY NOTING THAT THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH BRINGS AN END TO THE FROST-FREEZE
PROGRAM.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THIS TIME. SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND MESOSCALE MODEL ARE OUTPUTTING SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO
VIRGA OR ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED
IN THE FORECAST JUST YET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
KEY POINTS:
* RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF
RAIN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
* SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, BECOMING MILDER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY THANKSGIVING.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOWER
ON HOW MUCH, IF ANY, RAIN OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND ANY RAIN DEVELOPMENT MAY BE TIED TO ANY WEAKER
ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NBM
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PROBABILITIES SHOULD DECREASE EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE.
A FEW MEMBERS, INCLUDING THE GFS AND AI-GFS, SLOW DOWN THE COLD
FRONT AND DO NOT FULLY MOVE IT THROUGH UNTIL THANKSGIVING. THIS IS
DUE TO TRAILING ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT. OTHER GUIDANCE (CMC,
ECMWF, ECMWF-AIFS) ARE MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT BRINGING IN A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING.
FOLLOWED THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH WEST
THAT A TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER PROGRESSION WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING.
OTHERWISE, THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A BRISK AND COLD NEXT FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH WILL CONVERGE TOWARD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CONFIDENCE
ON IFR HAS DECREASED AND FOR THE TIME HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING AND GRADUALLY
VEERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT NORTHERLY, AND THEN NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE EVEN AFTER GOING VFR.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TONIGHT COULD VARY A CATEGORY ON EITHER
SIDE, BUT MVFR IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
ANY IFR.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR, BECOMING MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
RAIN LIKELY AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN (AROUND 40 PERCENT).
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT
ON THE OCEAN DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE WATERS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS LOOKS TO
BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP/DS
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/DS
HYDROLOGY...JP/DS
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