279
FXUS61 KOKX 220635
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
135 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE NORTH TO LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION,
ALL RAIN, ENDS RATHER QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER EASTERN
CANADA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AND OFF THE COAST. ONCE THE UPPER LOW TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVE MOVE OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE REGION. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE CLOSED LOW
BRINGING A LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE MAINLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTH, HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY, INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, BECOMING MILDER
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
THANKSGIVING.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, SO IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOWER ON HOW MUCH, IF ANY, RAIN OCCURS
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, FORCING APPEARS
WEAK AND ANY RAIN DEVELOPMENT MAY BE TIED TO ANY WEAKER ENERGY
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NBM
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PROBABILITIES SHOULD DECREASE EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE.
A FEW MEMBERS, INCLUDING THE GFS AND AI-GFS, SLOW DOWN THE COLD
FRONT AND DO NOT FULLY MOVE IT THROUGH UNTIL THANKSGIVING. THIS
IS DUE TO TRAILING ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT. OTHER GUIDANCE
(CMC, ECMWF, ECMWF-AIFS) ARE MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT
BRINGING IN A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THANKSGIVING. FOLLOWED THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW, BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT A TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER
PROGRESSION WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. OTHERWISE, THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS A BRISK AND COLD NEXT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY VFR BUT EXPECTED TO COME DOWN TO MVFR BY
8Z FOR MUCH OF THE TERMINALS. -RA OVERSPREADS THE AREA AFTER
6-8Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS. BRIEF IFR IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS, MAINLY FROM 10-13Z
SO OPTED TO INCLUDE IN A PROB30 AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE. -RA ENDS FROM 14-17Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED QUICKLY THEREAFTER.
ANY SW WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO VEER W
AND NW INTO THE MORNING REMAINING LESS THAN 10KT. NW WINDS THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE TIMING OF ANY FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES THROUGH 18Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
MORNING PUSH.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR, BECOMING MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
RAIN LIKELY AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN (AROUND 40 PERCENT).
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTH AND ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, SCA CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH MARGINAL GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SOUND, EAST OF PORT
JEFFERSON/NEW HAVEN, AND THE LONG ISLAND BAYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA CONDITIONS WILL BE SUB ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DS/MET
AVIATION...JC/MW
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
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