633
FXUS61 KOKX 221027
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
527 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING. PRECIPITATION, ALL
RAIN, ENDS RATHER QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE SURFACE FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH CLOSED LOW PRESSURE REMAINING OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND OFF THE COAST. ONCE THE UPPER LOW TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE MOVE
OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE REGION. THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE CLOSED LOW
BRINGING A LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE MAINLY TO THE WEST AND
NORTH, HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY, INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, BECOMING MILDER
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
THANKSGIVING.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND PARENT LOW PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, SO IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOWER ON HOW MUCH, IF ANY, RAIN OCCURS
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, FORCING APPEARS
WEAK AND ANY RAIN DEVELOPMENT MAY BE TIED TO ANY WEAKER ENERGY
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NBM
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PROBABILITIES SHOULD DECREASE EARLY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE.
A FEW MEMBERS, INCLUDING THE GFS AND AI-GFS, SLOW DOWN THE COLD
FRONT AND DO NOT FULLY MOVE IT THROUGH UNTIL THANKSGIVING. THIS
IS DUE TO TRAILING ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT. OTHER GUIDANCE
(CMC, ECMWF, ECMWF-AIFS) ARE MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT
BRINGING IN A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THANKSGIVING. FOLLOWED THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW, BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT A TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER
PROGRESSION WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. OTHERWISE, THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS A BRISK AND COLD NEXT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
SUNDAY.
MVFR ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING REGARDING IFR LIKELY NOT HAPPENING, SO REMOVED
PROB30 GROUPS THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED IFR. -SHRA/-RA
CONTINUES THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR
NEAR THE END OF THE RAIN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BCMG NNW-N LATER THIS MORNING AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND LIKELY BECOME VARIABLE IN DIRECTION FOR MANY
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
RAIN/SHOWERS MAY LINGER AN HOUR OR TWO PAST TIME INDICATED IN
TAFS, BUT PROBABLY DO NOT LOWER VSBY BELOW 6SM.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR, BECOMING MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
RAIN LIKELY AT NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN RAIN (AROUND 40 PERCENT).
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
NORTH AND ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, SCA CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH MARGINAL GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SOUND, EAST OF PORT
JEFFERSON/NEW HAVEN, AND THE LONG ISLAND BAYS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
AREA CONDITIONS WILL BE SUB ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DS/MET
AVIATION...JC/MW
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET
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