963
FXUS61 KOKX 232320 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
620 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION THANKSGIVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THIS EVENING. CAMS SHOW SOME REFLECTIVITY
ENHANCEMENT OVER EASTERN LI AND CT LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED
MOISTURE FROM THE RELATIVELY WARMER LI SOUND AND OCEAN WATERS.
THIS HAS BEEN REALIZED WITH INCREASED REFLECTIVITY VALUES FROM
OKX DOPPLER RADAR AND SOME GROUND OBSERVATIONS OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN. HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT, MORESO AT THE COAST. WENT ABOVE THE NBM GIVEN HOW
IT HAS HAS PERFORMED IN RECENT NW FLOW/COLD ADVECTION REGIMES
AND ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MIXING FROM THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS. GUSTS AT THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 25 AND 35
MPH.
GIVEN THAT WINDS LIKELY STAY ELEVATED, NOT EXPECTING TEMPS TO GET AS
LOW AS LAST NIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FOR MOST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT ON MONDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SO WINDS WILL FALL OFF. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SO THIS WILL WORK AGAINST
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THIS CLOUD COVER SO IF TIMING CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN EXPECT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST LOWS
AS WELL.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN STARTING AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH AND WEST BUT THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF
THE AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY POINTS
* WINDY CONDITIONS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THANKSGIVING THROUGH
FRIDAY. POSSIBILITY FOR WIND GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH THANKSGIVING
AND PERHAPS WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR FRIDAY.
* COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH COLDER WIND CHILLS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S THANKSGIVING WITH WIND CHILLS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.
* OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
A LARGE DIP IN THE JET STREAM IS SHOWN IN THE NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION GUIDANCE CONSENSUS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND JET STREAM MAX MOVE NEAR THE
AREA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. JET STREAM MAX MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTEN
OUT, WITH RETURN TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. A RIDGING
PATTERN BECOMES EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE
850MB FIELDS SHOW A COLD POOL MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TIME PERIOD WITH VALUES NEAR
THE -7 TO -10 DEGREE C RANGE. THIS WILL MARK A VERY COLD AIRMASS
THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE, THE LOCAL REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN, ONE LOW, RELATIVELY
WEAKER ONE, WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO CANADIAN
MARITIMES THANKSGIVING THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RELATIVELY
STRONGER LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA MOVING EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY. IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL FIELDS MSLP AND WITH THEIR
DEPICTION OF WINDS, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE ACROSS
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THEREAFTER
FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS FORECAST ARE A RESULT OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SEEN IN THE FORECAST MODELS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE THE TIGHTEST ON FRIDAY. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING
WITHIN SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE GFS MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ARE INDICATING ALREADY SOME TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER GUSTS
NEAR 40 TO 45 KT. ON A WESTERLY FLOW, EFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING AND
WINDS NEAR TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER CAN MORE EASILY BE BROUGHT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VFR PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS DROP
OFF TONIGHT. FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE CHOSEN TO HAVE GUSTS END FOR THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS NOW ENDING AT THE
WESTERN CITY TERMINALS LIKE KEWR AND KTEB AT 0Z, AND THE KJFK AND
KLGA BY 03Z. W-NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT
RETURNING BY 14Z MON, THEN GUSTS END WITH WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND
10 KT TOWARDS 19-20Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS COULD PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH LIGHT SW WINDS.
TUESDAY: VFR, BECOMING MVFR LATE IN THE DAY WITH RAIN BECOMING
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AT NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR. CHC S-SW GUSTS
20-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR AND SHOWERS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. W FLOW WITH GUSTS 25-30KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON OCEAN WITH 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED. THE SCA ON ALL OTHER WATERS (EXCEPT
THE NY HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND) STARTS AT 10PM TONIGHT. WINDS
DECREASE ON MONDAY AND SUB- SCA CONDITIONS RETURN BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK,
EXCEPT A SHORT PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN 25 KNOT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE OCEAN WEDNESDAY AND FOR MOST
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR GALES ALL WATERS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED SEAS WELL INTO SCA RANGE FOR OCEAN AND
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND SOUND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST
WINDS EVENTUALLY TREND DOWN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SCA
LEVELS FOR SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JM/JT
NEAR TERM...JM/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/JT
HYDROLOGY...JM/JT
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