541
FXUS61 KOKX 250928
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
428 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACHES. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
AREA WILL THEN REMAIN IN BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FROM
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY TODAY.
LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND A LEADING
WARM FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY FROM THE NYC METRO AREA
WEST, THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA TUE EVENING. SPED UP
ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION BY A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR TODAY
BASED ON GUIDANCE OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS BRINING IN THE RAIN
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION TODAY WILL MEAN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S, PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED AS A 50 TO 60 KT S-SW
LLJ TRANSPORTS MOISTURE AND PROVIDES LIFT/CONVERGENCE AND SOME
MEAGER INSTABILITY MOSTLY BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. BECAUSE THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO LOWER LEVELS, HAVE CONTINUED TO
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST THOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE A
CONVECTIVE ASPECT TO THE PRECIP AT ITS PEAK VIA SOME MEAGER H8-5
INSTABILITY. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS WOULD BE JUST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HREF SHOWS JUST OVER 100 J/K MEAN MUCAPE
MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERY PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE AT TIMES IN THE WARM SECTOR WED
INTO WED EVENING, THEN AS VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LATE WED NIGHT, WITH PRECIP ENDING AND W WINDS PICKING UP.
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT DROP MUCH, WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
THE MOST PART.
HIGHS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON WED SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN
MANY SPOTS BEFORE SHARPLY FALLING OFF LATE WED NIGHT TO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S AFTER COLD FROPA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* WINDY CONDITIONS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. POSSIBILITY FOR WIND GUSTS 30-35 MPH THANKSGIVING DAY,
AND 35-40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ON FRIDAY.
* COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE 30S.
* MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH CONTINUE TO
APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING TO OUR NORTH WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS PLACES THE AREA IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LREF ENSEMBLE SHOWS ABOUT A 65% OF WIND GUSTS OF
GREATER THAN 30 MPH BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM THURSDAY, THOUGH THIS
PROBABILITY DROP TO 30-40% WITH THE NBM. SO, THERE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS, PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHEN DEEP MIXING
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH. THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE WAS USED FOR GUSTS AS THE NBM HAS BEEN UNDER- DOING
WINDS IN THESE DEEP MIXING W-NW FLOW REGIMES. THE FORECAST MAY
CONTINUE TO TREND UP. AT THIS TIME ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN AND SHOULD BE IN CONTROL MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND COULD BRING SOME
RAIN TO END THE WEEKEND AND START NEXT WEEK. STUCK WITH NBM
POP FOR NOW, BUT TIMING WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR INITIALLY THEN CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY LOWER INTO IFR TONIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCALIZED LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LLWS WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR KISP AND KGON TERMINALS. LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR NYC TERMINALS AND KBDR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY INTO THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY
INCREASING TO 5-10 KT RANGE AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY FOR REST OF
TAF PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF RAIN AND TIMING OF CATEGORICAL CHANGES COULD BE 1-2 HRS
OFF FROM TAF.
TIMING OF WIND GUSTS COULD BE 1-3 HRS OFF FROM TAF.
LLWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR AND SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE OF RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
MORE PROBABLE TO LINGER WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. W FLOW WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT, HIGHEST ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW FLOW WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND S FLOW ON THE OCEAN SHOULD INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT, ESPECIALLY E OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET. SCA ISSUED FROM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED FOR THESE
CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN NEAR 5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, EXTENDED THE SCA ON
ALL OCEANS WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SCAS
WERE ISSUED FOR ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS INCREASE.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY THU
AFTERNOON. BY FRI, THE OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 40 KT,
WHILE THE NON OCEAN WATERS SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ADDITIONALLY,
SEAS LIKELY PEAK ON FRI AT 7-10 FEET ON THE OCEAN, AND 5-7 FEET
ON CENTRAL/ERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY START TO IMPROVE FRI NIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SAT AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
QPF FROM LATE DAY TUE INTO WED EVENING HAS TRENDED UPWARD, WITH
AMTS 1/3 TO 3/4 INCH. THERE COULD BE LOCAL AMTS UP TO 1 INCH.
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR TUE NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ335-338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...JP
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