537
FXUS61 KOKX 260254
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
954 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WILL THEN
REMAIN IN BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT THEN IMPACTS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL SEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TOWARD THE AREA. RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, SENDING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES SOME AHEAD OF THE NOSE OF A 50 KT
LLJ APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH, WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT THIS TIME.
THE RAIN LOOKS TO COME IN 2 WAVES, FIRST WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WARM FRONT, THEN WITH CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE TN VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL FOLLOW NOT TOO LONG AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL RAINS. CAMS ARE ALL LOCKING INTO THIS AREA AS WELL AS
THE 12Z GFS AND NAM. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH, SO
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SECOND ROUND. NBM RAIN
CHANCES HAVE TRENDED UPWARD. THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS TIME IS
ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT. HOWEVER, SHOULD THIS TREND
NORTHWARD CONTINUE, CHANCES WILL INCREASE ELSEWHERE. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY, THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PATCHY FOG AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER,
A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE SW BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE UP AROUND
60, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
THEN FOLLOW WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS LOOK TO FALL SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. USED NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
WINDS.
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO AREA NORTH AND WEST OF NYC
THURSDAY WITH EVEN A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER
GETTING INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY GET KNOW HIGHER THAN THE LOWER TO MID
40S THURSDAY. EVEN WITH WINDS STAYING UP THURSDAY NIGHT (LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING), MOST LOCATIONS WILL GET TO AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE PEAK
BEING FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 35-40MPH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 45MPH.
* COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S.
* MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD, WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
A LARGE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD TO
START FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING TO
OUR NORTH WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS
PLACES THE AREA IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PEAK GUSTS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY IN A
W/NW FLOW WITH DEEP MIXING. THE NBM AND EVEN NOW THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE LOOK TOO LOW WITH WINDS GUSTS BASED LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RECENT NBM VERIFICATION IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME. STILL
THINKING THE FORECAST CAN TREND UP A BIT MORE WHICH WOULD PUT THE
AREA CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME THOUGH,
ONLY ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED.
THE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY AND PASSES OVERHEAD SATURDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RAIN MAY BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF TO
LIGHT RAIN AFTER 07-09Z. THE LIGHT RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY ALSO LOWER TO LIFR, ESPECIALLY BY
LATE WED MORNING AND CLOSER TO MIDDAY. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED, WITH MVFR TOWARDS OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARDS 22-00Z, BUT TIMING OF VFR IS UNCERTAIN. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SE TO S WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT, THEN MORE SSW
AFTER 06-09Z. SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
LLWS 40-45 KT AT 2KFT EXPECTED AT KJFK, KLGA. KBDR, KISP, AND KGON
TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.
LLWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KEWR BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF.
LOW CONFIDENCE FLIGHT CATEGORY FORECAST DURING THE MORNING PUSH.
ALSO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS IMPROVEMENT NOW LOOKS
DELAYED.
LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: BECOMING VFR. INCREASING W WINDS NEAR 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KT TOWARDS AND AFTER 03-04Z.
THURSDAY: VFR. W FLOW 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. WNW FLOW 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW FLOW WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER AND RAIN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. S/SW WINDS WILL BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OCEAN WATERS
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WORKS MOVE THROUGH. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30
KT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 11 FT, HIGHEST FROM MORICHES INLET TO
MONTAUK POINT. GALE POTENTIAL LOOKS MORE MARGINAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AT THIS TIME.
A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH 35
TO 40 KT GUSTS EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL OTHER
WATERS, MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH 30 TO 35 KT GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, SEAS LIKELY PEAK FRIDAY AT 7 TO 10 FEET ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AND 5 TO 7 FEET ON THE LI SOUND.
SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
BEFORE DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE NEXT SHOT AT SCA LOOKS TO BE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
QPF FROM TONIGHT INTO WED CONTINUES TO TREND UP, WITH AMOUNTS
FROM AROUND A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, TO AROUND AN INCH AT THE COAST. THE
BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ335-338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JT/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW
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