832
FXUS61 KOKX 261204
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
704 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE FORECAST REGION WILL BE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. THEN, STRONG LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK
HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA EVENTUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY THE DEPARTURE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THERE WILL BE AN APPROACHING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FOR
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOCAL REGION WILL BECOME MORE
ENCOMPASSED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE LADEN BOUNDARY LAYER,
PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER AROUND THE REGION. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AND NBM WAS UTILIZED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, PARTIALLY LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWER POSSIBILITY. EVEN WITH THIS, THE RANGE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO BE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
INCREASING DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
SEEN WITH THE RAPID DECREASE OF TEMPERATURES AT 850MB. THIS WILL
INCREASING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW TO
BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND COMMON ACROSS THE REGION.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS FROM THE INCREASING LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE LATE TONIGHT WITH THAT STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS DEWPOINTS LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY ALSO.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS
* WINDS OF NEAR 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 TO 40 MPH FORECAST FOR
THANKSGIVING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THANKSGIVING MAINLY LOW TO MID 40S
BUT WIND CHILLS STAY IN THE 30S.
* WINDS OF NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 TO 45 MPH FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL INDICATION OF NEAR 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS BEING POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH WIND CHILLS STAYING MOSTLY IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE KEY POINTS WITH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND WITH THE
HIGHER WINDS, COLD TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS WIND CHILLS. NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE TIMEFRAME OF
THANKSGIVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH STRONG MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PUSHING ACROSS ON FRIDAY. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THAT
FLATTENING OF THE FLOW, RETURNING TO NEARLY ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE,
PARENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD WITHIN QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
SLIGHT RISING PRESSURE MAGNITUDE OF THE PARENT LOW AND LOWERING OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE MAGNITUDE. STILL A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED BUT THE PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE STILL A FORECAST PARAMETER WITH
ASSOCIATED LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST, SHOWING HOW FRIDAY WILL BE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS COMPARED TO THURSDAY.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING IS STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY TO AROUND 7 TO
8KFT. WHILE NBM IS INDICATING VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH, THE NBM HAS RECENTLY UNDER-PREDICTED
WIND GUSTS AND STILL EXHIBITS THIS BIAS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
US WITH THEIR CURRENT SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ACTUALLY BE THE SAME
SYSTEM THAT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS WEEK. GFS BUFKIT AND NAM BUFKIT BOTH SHOW TOP OF
MIXED LAYER FOR A FEW LOCATIONS WITH WINDS NEAR 40-45 KT AND THE
GFS BUFKIT HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS A FEW TIMES WITH MULTIPLE
MODEL RUNS FOR FRIDAY. ON A WESTERLY FLOW, EFFICIENT VERTICAL
MIXING AND WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER CAN MORE EASILY
BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NBM FOLLOWED WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE SUNDAY
NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
KEY POINT:
* MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD,
WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY AND PASSES OVERHEAD SATURDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ANY TEMPORARY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DROP
BACK DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR THROUGH 15Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE EVENING,
THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE CATEGORY CHANGES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
ISOLATED LIFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH OF
THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN
23Z-3Z.
A S/SW FLOW AROUND 10KT THROUGH THE DAY IS EXPECTED. SOME
VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE W AND BECOME
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS
TONIGHT AROUND 25-30KT POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE DAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORY TIMING.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: VFR. W FLOW 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. WNW FLOW 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW FLOW WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER AND RAIN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. SCA
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GALE
WATCH REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THEREAFTER FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MADE THE SCA FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS
BEGIN THIS EVENING, 01Z THURSDAY AND EXTENDED THAT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, ENDING AT 11Z FRIDAY. THEN, ADDED THESE NON-OCEAN WATERS TO
THE GALE WATCH FOR ALL DAY FRIDAY, 11Z FRIDAY TO 23Z FRIDAY.
NOTE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BUT JUST
OCCASIONAL IN FREQUENCY.
GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY TREND
DOWN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
BEFORE DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE NEXT SHOT AT SCA LOOKS TO BE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL
SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO RESULT NEAR A HALF INCH OR
LESS OF RAIN. NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS AND
THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/JT
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM/JT
HYDROLOGY...JM
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