130
FXUS61 KOKX 120245
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
945 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST TONIGHT, THEN BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY COASTAL SE CT, OTHERWISE THE TREND
WITH WINDS HAS BEEN DOWN, SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED.
MID-LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING INTO THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WILL
REINFORCE THE STRONG CAA IN THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR ENHANCED MIXING OF THE BL AND KEEP GUSTY SFC WINDS
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, SO GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH THEN.
MOST EARLIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHERN NJ HAD
DISSIPATED JUST BEFORE REACHING THE CWA. A COUPLE OVER MORRIS
COUNTY NJ ATTM SHOW MUCH BETTER REFLECTIVITY AND SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO PARTS OF NE NJ AND NYC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
LEAVING A QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SPOTS.
COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOWER 20S ALONG THE COAST. WIND CHILLS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND IN THE TEENS
FOR THE NYC METRO AREA AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* COLD CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURE
MODERATION INTO SATURDAY.
* LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
ARRIVES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA. COLD TEMPERATURES
PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS RELAXING QUITE A BIT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY BE IN THE 20S, THOUGH SOME
NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS. ANY LOCATION THAT IS
ABLE TO GO CALM MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN FORECAST DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS SHIFT WSW ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A MODERATING OF THE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. WHILE MUCH OF
THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL FORCE LIFT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS LIFT SHOULD BE REALIZED IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND, AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY DEVELOP BUT
EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
* A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS UP TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO MODERATE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, WEAKENING
AS IT DOES SO. AT THE SAME TIME, A FAST MOVING VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS AND MOVES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, AND ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. CYCLOGENESIS IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND AFTER IT PASSES THROUGH,
LIKELY TOO LATE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IMPACTS. HOWEVER, AN
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL (2"-4") ACROSS NE NJ, NYC, AND LONG ISLAND
SNOWFALL IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS LOOKS TO BE FOR THE MORE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW. THERE REMAIN
DIFFERENCES AMONG GLOBAL NWP (FOR EXAMPLE, THE NAM GIVES PORTIONS OF
LONG ISLAND WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA OF AROUND 6", WHILE THE
GFS GIVES LONG ISLAND <1") SO, NBM WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
MOVE IN THROUGH TUESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BECOME BLUSTERY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
INTENSIFYING LOW AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST, AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPS WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY, WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S (THESE COULD BE LOWER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS, DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SNOWPACK, CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS), AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WIND CHILLS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING COULD DROP TO THE EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION IN
HIGH TEMPS (LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S) EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY, WITH LESS
WIND CHILL IMPACT AS WINDS LIGHTEN.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WHILE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WNW FLOW CONTINUES, WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT AT
MOST TERMINALS, SOME GUSTS 25-30 KT AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
OUTLYING TERMINALS COULD LOSE GUSTS FOR A SHORT TIME LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE RESUMING BY
13Z-14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, THOUGH A COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET
CLOSE TO THE NYC METROS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCNL GUSTS OVER 25 KT POSSIBLE MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. WSW WINDS G15KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SNOW MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR COND POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: MVFR TO IFR, POSSIBLY LIFR AT TIMES, IN SNOW, MAINLY IN
THE MORNING. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH
VFR RETURNING. NW WINDS G15-20KT. SOME PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT. GUSTS LOWER AT NIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. W WINDS G15-20KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
REPLACED GALE WARNING WITH SCA FOR NY HARBOR, THE WESTERN
SOUND, AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS, WHERE GUSTS HAVE LOWERED TO
25-30 KT. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND THE
ERN SOUND/BAYS, WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT INTO LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 4-7
FT ON THE OCEAN W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY
DAYBREAK. SEAS 7-10 FT EAST OF THERE SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT
DAYBREAK. SEAS UP TO 6 FT ON THE CENTRAL/ERN SOUND SHOULD ALSO
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT.
GUSTS IN WNW FLOW SHOULD DROP BELOW 25 KT BY MID MORNING FRI ON
ALL BUT THE OCEAN WATERS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND CONTINUE
THERE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING 5-FT SEAS FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SETTLE DOWN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. OCEAN SEAS INCREASE SOME SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES ALONG SE OF LONG ISLAND. SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 5-9 FT ON THE OCEAN, AND AROUND 5 FT ON THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUND.
WINDS DIMINISH, BUT REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 25 KT FOR MUCH OF MONDAY,
FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES ON THE OCEAN
WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A BIT OF A
LULL EARLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
WAVES ON THE SOUND FALL BELOW 5 FT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340-350-353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/JP/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BG/JM
MARINE...BG/JP/MW
HYDROLOGY...JP/MW
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