208
FXUS61 KOKX 122301
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
601 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING
THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS SETS UP GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE TEENS
EXPECTED IN TYPICALLY COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
COULD THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
STEADILY INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WITH THE
HIGH OFFSHORE, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP, ALLOWING HIGHS
TO RISE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES, WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-DECEMBER.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND, NEW
YORK CITY, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY FROM 10PM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 1PM SUNDAY.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
HELP INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVER, GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ENOUGH
COLD AIR IN PLACE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER 7PM SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH WITH TEMPERATURES STILL A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COAST AT THE START, CAN'T RULE
OUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INITIALLY, BUT EXPECT THIS TO
TRANSITION FAIRLY QUICKLY TO ALL SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
THE STEADIEST SNOW EXPECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7AM SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TAPER FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION, WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW CLEARING EASTERN LONG ISLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LONG ISLAND, WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE SYSTEM, HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* MUCH BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WEEK, THEN WARMING UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
* CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE LATTER SEEMS TO HINGE ON
THE INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE STREAMS OF ENERGY MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THE POLAR VORTEX,
WHICH WILL BE BOTTLED UP WELL TO THE NORTH. THUS, LOOKING AT A
WEEK WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL (10-15
DEGREES), BUT ENDING ON A WARM NOTE WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY. SOME COOLER AIR
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, BUT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEXITIES,
THE MAGNITUDE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. THE NBM (WHICH WAS FOLLOWED)
RETURNS US BACK TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. A CONSENSUS APPROACH SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF SNOW FLURRIES AND/OR A SNOW SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT, THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGS IN
TOO MUCH WARM AIR TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WNW WINDS 10-15KT
GUSTING 20-25KT WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
DIRECTION BACKS MORE TOWARDS WSW. ON SATURDAY, VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 16 TO 19KT FROM THE WSW
POSSIBLE. LOW CEILINGS AND SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: SNOW MOVING IN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
MVFR TO IFR, POSSIBLY LIFR LATE AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MVFR TO IFR, POSSIBLY LIFR AT TIMES, IN SNOW, MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH VFR
RETURNING. NW WINDS GUST AROUND 25KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30KT.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT. GUSTS LOWER AT NIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20KT.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA EXTENDED TO 10 PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES
INLET.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OTHER THAN A FEW GUSTS
TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS
25-35 KT ON THE OCEAN AND 25-30 KT ELSEWHERE BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-7
FEET.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW
FLOW. THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY BUMP IN WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH, PROLONGING THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS A BIT LONGER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
FOR ALL WATERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR NJZ006-106>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SYNOPSIS...FEB/DW
NEAR TERM...FEB
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...20
MARINE...FEB/DW
HYDROLOGY...FEB/DW
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