016
FXUS61 KOKX 140553
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1253 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT, TRACKING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY BUILDING IN BRIEFLY, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
ACROSS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY POINTS:
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TRI-STATE REGION FROM 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH 1PM SUNDAY.
* 2 TO 3" OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, 3 TO 5"
FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND COAST, AND 4 TO 6" FOR E LI, TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
A STRONG POLAR LOW (-2 STD 500MB HEIGHT) DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT. TREND OVER THE LAST
24-48 HOURS HAS BEEN FOR THIS FEATURE TO TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY
MORE NEUTRAL TILT (FROM POSITIVE) AS IT PIVOTS TOWARDS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE AREA, AND ALSO SHIFT THE THE ULJ
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NW OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH COMBINATION
OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE PVA AND RRQ OF 150KT ULJ INDUCING WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS MID ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING, TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF THE 40/70 LAT/LON TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AM.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE FEATURES ARE WEAK, THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AM (INCLUDING RRQ OF ULJ, AND MODEST MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALONG THE COAST), AND
SLIGHTLY MORE DEPTH OF MOISTURE FOR LOW PRESSURE TO WORK WITH HAS
RESULTED IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN QPF AND SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER
THE LAST 48 HRS.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF .3 TO .5 FOR COAST AND .1 TO
.2 FOR INTERIOR. MAIN SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FROM
NORTHWARD EXTENT AND DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW BANDING, AND SNOW
RATIOS DURING PEAK DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LATE TONIGHT. SLRS
SHOULD EXCEED TYPICAL 10:1 LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
DURING BEST SNOW GROWTH PERIOD AND DROPPING 850 HPA TEMPS, WITH
12-14:1 SEEMING REASONABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AM. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A GENERAL 1" INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA. 3-5" LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE COAST INCLUDING NYC/NJ
METRO, WITH LOCALLY 6" POSSIBLE. 4-6" ACROSS E LI, WITH LOCALLY
7" POSSIBLE. 2 TO 4" ACROSS INTERIOR. WPC SUPERENSEMBLE AND
EXPERIMENTAL NBM 5.0 HAVE PRETTY GOOD CLUSTERING IN THESE
RANGES, WITH REASONABLE WORST CASE (10% PROB OF EXCEEDING) A
COUPLE OF INCHES HIGHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE
TO A MORE MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES
OF UP TO 1/2"/HR LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
1"/HR RATES ALONG THE COAST FROM 4AM TO 11AM DURING BEST SNOW
GROWTH. THIS SIGNAL IS EVIDENT IN THE HIGH-RES CAMS, WITH
HIGHEST PROB ACROSS SOUTHERN AND E LI. THIS WILL BE TIME PERIOD
OF GREATEST TRAVEL IMPACTS IN TERMS OF REDUCED VSBY AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS WITH FREEZING/SUB FREEZING AIR TEMPS, HIGHER SNOW
RATES, AND REDUCED VSBY. INITIALLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR/SURFACE
TEMPS FOR CITY/COAST THIS EVENING, DROPPING BELOW FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM, MAY RESULTED IN ICY SPOTS ON UNTREATED
SURFACES.
STEADY SNOW EXITS FROM W TO E MID TO LATE MORNING, EXCEPT EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR FAR SE AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* STEADY SNOW ENDING MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW AFTERNOON
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. UNSEASONABLY COLD WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW FREEZING, AND HIGH TEMPS NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE.
* WINDY WITH NW WINDS GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO
CITY/COAST AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR.
STRONG POLAR LOW (-2 STD 500MB HEIGHTS) PIVOTS INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT.
STEADY SNOW EXITS FROM W TO E MID TO LATE SUN MORNING, EXCEPT EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR FAR SE AREAS. ALTHOUGH WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
AND POLAR FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON, COULD HAVE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING OR CROSSING THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
(PARTICULARLY NW HILL TERRAIN AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND E LI.
OTHERWISE, UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NW
FLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECTING IN A POLAR AIRMASS INTO SUN EVE
(850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -18 TO -20 C). THIS WILL HAVE TEMPS HOLDING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S INTERIOR, TO UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ALONG
THE COAST. WINDCHILLS IN THE TEENS.
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON USHERED IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
AM ON BRISK NW WINDS OF 15-25G30-40MPH, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER TEENS INTERIOR AND MID TEENS COAST (UPPER TEENS NYC/NJ
METRO). WINDCHILLS OF 0 TO 5 F FOR COAST, AND 0 TO -5 F FOR
INTERIOR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY POINTS
* ARCTIC AIRMASS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AIRMASS MODERATES TOWARDS
MIDWEEK. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S. MONDAY NIGHT
LOWS FORECAST FROM TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
* WINDS WILL BE NW AND GUSTY MONDAY WITH DECREASING AND MORE
WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO FEEL ABOUT
10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE.
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, GETTING BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH EVEN SOME 50S FOR THURSDAY, BEFORE TRENDING COLDER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* NEXT MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING NEAR OR WITHIN
THE NORTHEAST FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE STEERING FLOW
FOR A MORE RAPID PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH QUICK PASSAGE OF HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE AREAS. ALOFT, THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
AN AIRMASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY WELL SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING EASTWARD WITHIN
SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR MIDWEEK WILL BRING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ITS MAIN FORCING REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER QUICK RESIDING HIGH PRESSURE
AREA TRAVERSES THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF EACH
COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT IN WARMER AIR, WITH WEDNESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE SATURDAY, DECEMBER 13TH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND
WARMER FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST THURSDAY, GETTING IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THESE AMBIENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THE NEXT MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT MAINLY RAIN
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT
SATURDAY WITH MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER BUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW PASSES WELL
SOUTH, THEN EAST AND WELL OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. LIFR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THROUGH MORNING AS SNOWFALL
INTENSITY BECOMES MORE STEADY TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY. UNCERTAIN IN
EXACT TIMING OF WORST CONDITIONS AS SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. BEST TIMEFRAME FOR STEADIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM 07Z-13Z
FOR THE NYC METROS/KHPN, 08Z-15Z KISP/KGON, AND 09Z-13Z KBDR. SNOW
TAPERS OFF LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY LIGHT OR WSW WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED TO BECOME NW OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15G20KT AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. GUSTS 30-35KT
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXPECTED TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP 4-6" KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KGON 3-5" KTEB/KHPN/KBDR 2-4" KSWF 2-3"
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMD LIKELY TO ADJUST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES AND THE ENDING OF
SNOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 12-18 KT WITH G20-30KT. PEAK GUSTS UP TO
35 KT POSSIBLE NYC METROS.
MONDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH G20-25KT, BECOMING W LATE
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH MAYBE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER NORTH/EAST
OF THE NYC METROS.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR. S WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER COND WITH RAIN LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. S WINDS 15G20-25KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SW SCA GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING FOR OCEAN AND SOUTHER/EASTERN
NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA FOR A PERIOD FOR ALL
WATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF
THE REGION.
WINDS GRADUALLY RAMP UP IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE TO SCA FOR ALL
WATER SUN AM INTO EARLY SUN AFT, AND THEN MARGINAL GALES SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AM. GALE WATCH CONTINUES FOR OCEAN WATERS
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN FREQUENT GUSTS, OTHERWISE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS.
FOR MONDAY REGARDING WIND GUSTS, GALES ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN
WATERS WITH SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS. THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS HAVE WIND GUSTS DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE OCEAN WILL HAVE MAINLY SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA WIND GUSTS FOR
REST OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS DEVELOP
AGAIN FOR THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUB-SCA WIND
GUSTS FORECAST FOR LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SCA
LEVEL WIND GUSTS REDEVELOPING ON THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME WATERS, ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN, COULD HAVE GALES
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCA LEVELS SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA SEAS THEN FORECAST FOR REST OF TUESDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS ARE ALSO FORECAST
TOWARDS MID TO LATE WEEK ON THE OCEAN. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, PARTS OF
LI SOUND ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV
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