202
FXUS61 KOKX 140738
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
238 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY BUILDING IN BRIEFLY, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1PM TODAY.
* 2 TO 4" OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, 3 TO 5"
FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND COAST, AND 4 TO 6" FOR E LI, TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE OF BANDS OF RELATIVELY HEAVIER SNOW. ONE
HAS REMAINED CENTERED OFFSHORE, BUT APPEARS THAT IT COULD SHIFT
INTO AT LEAST EASTERN LONG ISLAND, AND POSSIBLY GET INTO NASSAU
COUNTY AND NYC AS WELL BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ANOTHER
SOMEWHAT WEAKER BAND IS HEADING INTO NE NJ AND PROBABLY IMPACTS
PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLY INTO SW CT - COULD CLIP NYC AS
WELL. SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN BETWEEN THE 2 BANDS, AND HI-RES CAMS
FAVOR THE OFFSHORE BAND BEING MAINTAINED, OWING TO ITS
PROXIMITY TO STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP AND SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN NUDGED UP
SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT NO HEADLINE CHANGES
ANTICIPATED. IF ANYTHING, ORANGE COUNTY COULD END UP WITH
ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS FOR MORE THAN HALF OF THE COUNTY. LOCALLY 5
INCHES OF SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN PARTS OF NE NJ INTO THE REST
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS IN THE CITY. REGARDING
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS, THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED. DEEP SYNOPTIC
LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET STREAK,
AND PVA FROM AN APPROACHING STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN RELATIVELY HIGHER RATIOS
THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT FOR THE GIVEN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDING FROM FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING WILL HELP THIS CAUSE AS WELL.
HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY
LATE THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS, BUT SNOW COULD CONTINUE A
LITTLE PAST THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME OF 1PM ACROSS EASTERN
LI AND SE CT. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS SUPPORT SNOW STICKING TO
UNTREATED SURFACES THROUGH THE ADVISORY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
HOLD IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT AND WILL BE GUSTY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND CHILLS LATE
AT NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING DIP TO -5 TO 5 ABOVE, BUT ARE
SHORT OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BREEZY AND COLD FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL, AVERAGING AROUND ONLY 30. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD
TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD THEN BE DRY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN MONDAY, BUT AT LEAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY POINTS
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, GETTING BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH EVEN SOME 50S FOR THURSDAY, BEFORE TRENDING COLDER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* NEXT MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
* NO ADVISORY OR WARNING THRESHOLDS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
NBM WIND FIELDS IMPLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REGARDING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC.
THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL, BUT POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW PASSES WELL
SOUTH, THEN EAST AND WELL OFFSHORE INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. LIFR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THROUGH MORNING AS SNOWFALL
INTENSITY BECOMES MORE STEADY TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY. UNCERTAIN IN
EXACT TIMING OF WORST CONDITIONS AS SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. BEST TIMEFRAME FOR STEADIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM 07Z-13Z
FOR THE NYC METROS/KHPN, 08Z-15Z KISP/KGON, AND 09Z-13Z KBDR. SNOW
TAPERS OFF LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY LIGHT OR WSW WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED TO BECOME NW OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15G20KT AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. GUSTS 30-35KT
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
EXPECTED TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP 4-6" KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KGON 3-5" KTEB/KHPN/KBDR 2-4" KSWF 2-3"
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMD LIKELY TO ADJUST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES AND THE ENDING OF
SNOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 12-18 KT WITH G20-30KT. PEAK GUSTS UP TO
35 KT POSSIBLE NYC METROS.
MONDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH G20-25KT, BECOMING W LATE
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH MAYBE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER NORTH/EAST
OF THE NYC METROS.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR. S WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER COND WITH RAIN LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. S WINDS 15G20-25KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SCA CONDS
OTHERWISE ON ALL WATERS TODAY, AND FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS,
THIS LASTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD HOWEVER BE
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ALSO
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SCA LEVELS SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA SEAS THEN FORECAST FOR REST OF
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TOWARDS MID TO LATE WEEK ON THE OCEAN. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, PARTS OF LI SOUND ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE/MW
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC
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