856
FXUS61 KOKX 141154
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
654 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES EAST NORTHEAST
AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY BUILDING IN BRIEFLY, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* NO CHANGES AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 1PM TODAY.
* EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS ARE 2 TO 4" ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR,
3 TO 5" FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND COAST, AND 4 TO 6" FOR E LI WITH
A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
RADAR IS NOW SHOWING THE SECOND BAND THAT WAS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED CROSSING INTO AND EAST OF
THE CITY, WITH THE BEST BANDING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SLATED FOR LI AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SO. CT
ZONES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SYNOPTICALLY WHAT IS DRIVING THIS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS A MAXIMA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ALONG WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY
LATE THIS MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS, BUT SNOW COULD CONTINUE A
LITTLE PAST THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME OF 1PM ACROSS EASTERN
LI AND SE CT. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS SUPPORT SNOW STICKING TO
UNTREATED SURFACES THROUGH THE ADVISORY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
HOLD IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS PICK UP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THEN THE
WINDS GET MORE GUSTY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING DIP TO -5 TO 5 ABOVE, BUT REMAIN SHORT OF COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS, IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BREEZY AND COLD FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL, AVERAGING AROUND ONLY 30. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD
TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD THEN BE DRY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN MONDAY, BUT AT LEAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY POINTS
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, GETTING BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH EVEN SOME 50S FOR THURSDAY, BEFORE TRENDING COLDER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* NEXT MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
* NO ADVISORY OR WARNING THRESHOLDS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
NBM WIND FIELDS IMPLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REGARDING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC.
THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL, BUT POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES
EAST NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING, AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE NW AND INCREASING FROM 5 TO 10 KT, THEN
INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-15G20-25KT AROUND MIDDAY. GUSTS 30-35KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH ONLY A
FEW TERMINALS TO THE N AND NW DECREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 09-10Z.
EXPECTED TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP 4-6"
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KGON/KTEB/KHPN/KBDR 3-5"
KSWF 3"
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMD LIKELY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND TOWARDS MIDDAY WITH ADJUSTMENTS
WITH TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATS AND THE ENDING OF SNOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH G20-25KT, BECOMING W IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH MAYBE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER NORTH/EAST
OF THE NYC METROS.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR. S WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER COND WITH RAIN LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. S WINDS 15G20-25KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SCA CONDS
OTHERWISE ON ALL WATERS TODAY, AND FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS,
THIS LASTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD HOWEVER BE
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ALSO
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SCA LEVELS SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA SEAS THEN FORECAST FOR REST OF
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TOWARDS MID TO LATE WEEK ON THE OCEAN. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, PARTS OF LI SOUND ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ068>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/JE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC
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