576
FXUS61 KOKX 141612
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1112 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY
MOVES ACROSS FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY BUILDING IN BRIEFLY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS THEREAFTER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES ON LONG ISLAND.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
* SNOW COMING TO AN END ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO, NE NJ, AND LO HUD
THIS MORNING.
* 1"/HR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BEFORE SNOW ENDS FROM W TO E THIS INTO
AFTERNOON.
BACK EDGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WORKING THROUGH NYC/NJ METRO, NE
NJ, AND LO HUD THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
BAND ACROSS LI AND SE CT WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 1"/HR
WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH 1PM. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
LIKELY ACROSS E LI AND SE CT. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND OVER WARNING CRITERIA OF 6",
BUT WILL NOT ISSUE SHORT FUSE WARNING AS ADVISORY HAD COVERED
THIS POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH COLD
ADVECTION EVIDENT ON GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH TEMPS DROPPING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND N&W. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HARD FREEZE EXPECTED AFTER SUNDOWN ON UNTREATED
WET/SLUSHY SURFACES.
WINDS PICK UP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THEN THE
WINDS GET MORE GUSTY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING DIP TO -5 TO 5 ABOVE, BUT REMAIN SHORT OF COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA. REGARDLESS, IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BREEZY AND COLD FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL, AVERAGING AROUND ONLY 30. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD
TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD THEN BE DRY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN MONDAY, BUT AT LEAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY POINTS
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, GETTING BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH EVEN SOME 50S FOR THURSDAY, BEFORE TRENDING COLDER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* NEXT MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
* NO ADVISORY OR WARNING THRESHOLDS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
NBM WIND FIELDS IMPLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REGARDING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC.
THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL, BUT POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES
EAST NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING, AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE NW AND INCREASING FROM 5 TO 10 KT, THEN
INCREASING FURTHER TO 10-15G20-25KT AROUND MIDDAY. GUSTS 30-35KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS. THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH ONLY A
FEW TERMINALS TO THE N AND NW DECREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 09-10Z.
EXPECTED TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KBDR/KHPN/KSWF 2-4"
KISP/KBDR/GON 3-5"
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMD LIKELY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND TOWARDS MIDDAY WITH ADJUSTMENTS
WITH TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATS AND THE ENDING OF SNOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH G20-25KT, BECOMING W IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH MAYBE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER NORTH/EAST
OF THE NYC METROS.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR. S WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER COND WITH RAIN LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. S WINDS 15G20-25KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SCA CONDS
OTHERWISE ON ALL WATERS TODAY, AND FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS,
THIS LASTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD HOWEVER BE
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ALSO
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SCA LEVELS SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA SEAS THEN FORECAST FOR REST OF
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TOWARDS MID TO LATE WEEK ON THE OCEAN. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, PARTS OF LI SOUND ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ068>075-176>179.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ078>081.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC
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