202
FXUS61 KOKX 141810
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
110 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY BUILDING IN BRIEFLY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES ON LONG ISLAND.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
* SNOW COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
* SNOWFALL RATES OF 1"/HR SNOWFALL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORKS OF LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BACK EDGE OF STEADY SNOW WORKING INTO ERN LONG ISLAND/CT, WITH
SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE NYC METRO AREA.
MUCH OF LONG ISLAND ENDING WITH WARNING CRITERIA OF 6-7".
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH COLD
ADVECTION EVIDENT ON GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH TEMPS DROPPING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND N&W. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HARD FREEZE EXPECTED AFTER SUNDOWN ON UNTREATED
WET/SLUSHY SURFACES.
WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON, THEN THE WINDS GET MORE GUSTY WITH
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WIND
CHILLS LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING DIP TO -5 TO 5 ABOVE,
BUT REMAIN SHORT OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
THUS FAR.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BREEZY AND COLD FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL, AVERAGING AROUND ONLY 30. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD
TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD THEN BE DRY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN MONDAY, BUT AT LEAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. THE
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, GETTING BACK INTO
THE 40S WITH EVEN SOME 50S FOR THURSDAY, BEFORE TRENDING COLDER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
* NEXT MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
* NO ADVISORY OR WARNING THRESHOLDS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
NBM WIND FIELDS IMPLY PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS REGARDING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC.
THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL, BUT POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR AT
LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL HEAD OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
MAIN AREA OF SNOW WITH LIFR VSBY COND SHOULD END AT KISP BY 19Z
AND KGON BY 20Z, WITH LINGERING FLURRIES BEHIND THAT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE NYC METROS ENDING AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. SO
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 18Z MON. NNW WINDS 15G20-25KT SHOULD BACK
NW (RIGHT ON 310 MAGNETIC) LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASE TO
20G30KT TONIGHT AFTER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH BACK TO 15G20-25KT LATE TONIGHT AND BACK
SLIGHTLY MORE W OF 310 MAGNETIC.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON: MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 15G20KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. WINDS BACKING SW AND DIMINISHING.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR. S WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT: RAIN WITH IFR COND, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
S WINDS 10-15G20-25KT IN THE EVENING, INCREASING TO
15-20G25-35KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLWS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN AND EITHER MVFR/IFR COND IN THE MORNING,
THEN VFR. SW WINDS 15-20G25-35KT IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING W IN
THE AFTERNOON. LLWS EARLY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SCA CONDS
OTHERWISE ON ALL WATERS TODAY, AND FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS,
THIS LASTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD HOWEVER BE
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ALSO
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SCA LEVEL SEAS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA SEAS THEN FORECAST FOR REST OF TUESDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA LEVEL SEAS ARE ALSO FORECAST
TOWARDS MID TO LATE WEEK ON THE OCEAN. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, PARTS
OF LI SOUND ARE ALSO FORECAST TO REACH SCA LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ078>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/BG/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC
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